First Draft: 🍒 Iran Has Trump 'By the Balls,' Say Senior U.S. Officials
The administration revealed the deal to end its illegal war, only for the president's incoherence and the vice president's perceived incompetence to dominate the day. Elsewhere, there's still no DNI.
Editor’s Note: There will be no ‘First Draft’ tomorrow, June 19, due to the Juneteenth holiday. Enjoy the day and the long weekend, and we’ll see you again Monday morning with this newsletter. - Mehdi
Happy Thursday! It’s Swin again. Virtually everybody knows America lost another war. The U.S. government’s propaganda machine is kicking into overdrive to try to convince you that, No, President Trump won it, very strongly, actually. But to disprove it, you don’t need to consult your own lying eyes, to ask Trump’s liberal critics, or even to ask neocons furious with the president for failing to fully deliver the mass murder of Iranians that he once promised. You can just ask members of Trump’s own administration, who broadly are not buying the ass-covering bullshit.
That’s what I did.
So, in today’s ‘First Draft,’ we get into why everyone is more ready than ever before to call Donald Trump’s bluffs – particularly when it comes to the illegal bloodbath he started in the Middle East. Plus, JD Vance is advised to start watching his back – and his front – while Trump’s absurd politicking leaves U.S. intelligence in limbo.
Oh, and here’s some good news! Today’s edition of ‘First Draft’ has NO paywall, thanks to our sponsor, Ground News. 🗞️ 😎 🙏 So there’s no paywall today BUT you should still consider becoming a paid subscriber to Zeteo and supporting independent journalism!
Now let’s get to it…
‘Lazy Warmonger’
One long year ago, I was talking to an appointee in Donald Trump’s new administration who, as many of Team Trump’s senior and mid-level officials are wont to do, felt like anonymously complaining to a member of the media about something blisteringly moronic the president had done.
This official, who sounded deeply annoyed by Trump’s first bombing of Iran, said something that has rung in my brain for the past 12 months: The Trump appointee called the U.S. president “a lazy warmonger.”
To this day, I cannot think of a more fitting term to describe the policies and the global vision of the Trump-Vance era. Yes, the self-described “Peace President” is actually very good at starting wars. But he’s often unwilling to put in the hard, blood-caked effort exhibited by work-ethic genocidaires who came before him.
Does that laziness ultimately save some lives? Maybe. But it also gets a ton of people killed, as the world waits for Trump’s laziness to evolve into gratuitous imperial humiliation.
In his absurdly fascistic second term, he is now doing the most characteristically fascist thing he could do – surrendering, after starting a fight with what he thought was a much weaker nation. And like the sore-loser bully that he is, he can’t bring himself to admit he got his ass handed to him.
Last night, he even chose to sign the surrender document, sorry, memorandum of understanding, at… wait for it… the Palace of Versailles.
Earlier in the day, at the G7 summit in France, President Trump had again tried to sound tough, saying of the deal: “No, it’s not final. It’s a memorandum of understanding, and if I don’t like it, we’ll go back to shooting at them, dropping bombs on their head.”
He also said: “If they don’t behave, we’ll go back to dropping bombs right smack in the middle of their head.”
The problem? Trump has threatened mass slaughter, genocide, and ground invasions so many times, only to sheepishly pull back, that senior government officials both in Tehran and Washington now simply don’t believe he has the stomach to restart his war in any substantial way. This is true of many officials and aides I’ve spoken to lately at the Pentagon, White House, and elsewhere.
Furthermore, numerous Trump advisers and administration officials have told me the same thing within the past week and a half, which boils down to: We cannot afford to keep this war going much longer. We are weeks away from it plunging the global economy off a massive cliff. And not only is it shredding the Republican Party’s chances ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, but it’s been tearing apart this administration and could very well bring it down. We do not have the leverage that the Trump White House keeps publicly pretending that we have.
There was one quote – from one senior U.S. official – that stood out, given how briskly it got to the point of where Trump is at in negotiations with the Iranians:
“They’ve got him by the balls,” this official – who, like others, is remaining anonymous because they don’t want to be fired or jailed by Team Trump – noted. “We want out, and [the Iranians] know we don’t have all the cards.”
It’s such a shame… for Trump. No one believes the U.S. is negotiating from a position of strength, no matter how many times JD Vance says we are.
Trump lost this one, badly. He will soon have more time to focus on his administration’s true top priority: His war on the American people.
The more complex the story, the better. With Ground News you can see beyond the headlines and unlock hidden perspectives. For example, take this story on Trump saying that the U.S.-Iran deal is not final, threatening to resume bombing if Iran “doesn’t behave.”
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🇮🇷 Iran War Updates
Terms read: A U.S. official read out the terms of the preliminary deal to end the war, including ending military operations, including in Lebanon; the U.S. raising its blockade and removing forces; Iran opening the Strait of Hormuz; a $300 billion reconstruction fund backed by Gulf states; sanctions lifted; and Iran not seeking nuclear weapons.
AdVance warning: At the G7 in France, Trump said of the deal and his VP: “If it works out, I’m going to take the credit. If it doesn’t work out, I’m blaming JD.”
Going ballistic: Trump also said he didn’t mind Iran keeping ballistic missiles, because “it’s a little unfair for them not to have some.” Forbidding such missiles was a war aim. Of the U.S. “double tap” strike that killed more than 100 children on the first day of the war, Trump shrugged: “Mistakes are made, war is nasty.”
Harsh truth: As for why he ended the war he started, Trump said: “I didn’t want to see economic catastrophe. If you kept this going, that could’ve happened.”
Hezbollah celebrates: In Lebanon, leader Naim Qassem hailed a “big victory,” adding: “The goal was to bring down the Iranian regime, but the might of American tyranny was broken.”
Strikes continue: Israel carried on killing. Drone strikes in southern Lebanon killed one and injured several over the last 24 hours. More than 3,800 people have been killed by Israel in Lebanon since the start of the latest hostilities on March 2.
‘Has Not Well Served the President’
Last month, Senator Bill Cassidy of Louisiana was beaten by a primary opponent endorsed by Donald Trump. On Wednesday, Cassidy was therefore able to speak freely about the “memorandum of understanding” ending Trump’s illegal war on Iran.
“Reagan is rolling over in his grave,” Cassidy said. “Iran’s nuclear ambitions were not curbed, and they have learned that threatening the Strait of Hormuz works and will undoubtedly leverage it in the future. Now, Iran gets to build brand-new infrastructure under this deal.
“Before the war, the strait was open, Iran was being crushed by sanctions, and 13 service members were still alive. Now, 13 Americans are dead, families have paid billions at the pump, sanctions will be lifted, and the bombing has stopped.
“This is the worst foreign policy blunder in decades.”
It was blistering, and it was not alone.
Thom Tillis of North Carolina, freed to speak by looming retirement, told MS Now: “We’ve lost two F-18s, several other air frames, 13 people have died, several of our Middle East partners have been attacked, 365 people have been injured… $100 billion has been spent since the first kinetic strike.”
Among the commentariat, Fox host Mark Levin said the deal “requires serious changes if not outright abandonment.” Speaking to Fox, Ben Shapiro bemoaned “a disaster that does not achieve any of the actual signal goals.”
Like Trump, like Ted Cruz, Shapiro had a scapegoat ready.
“In my opinion, the Vice President of the United States, the chief negotiator on this particular project, has not well served the president.”
Back in Congress, a Republican who chose to remain anonymous told NewsNation: “Conservatives on the Hill are stunned that [JD] Vance would erase all of Trump’s military victories in such a terrible deal. Trump effectively won the war and at the eleventh hour Vance is negotiating his way to a loss.”
Might be time to buy some stab vests, JD – and wear them front and back.
🗞️ What You Need to Know
DNI farce: After Trump delayed nominating Jay Clayton as director of national intelligence because he wants the Senate to pass a voter ID bill it doesn’t support, Democrats opposed to Trump’s acting DNI director, MAGA warrior Bill Pulte, lamented. “I am not sure whether Jay Clayton has been postponed or withdrawn,” Mark Warner said, complaining of the “level of chaos [and] incompetence.”
ICE disgrace: Deaths in immigration detention centers have doubled under Trump, Reuters found. 404 Media said ICE appears to be buying immigrants’ tax identifier information from a data broker, skirting a ban on obtaining such records.
False charge: In France at the G7, Trump took aim at Maine Democratic Senate candidate Graham Platner, saying he had a “swastika” tattoo – wrong, it was a “totenkopf,” since covered up – and bleating about being called a Nazi himself.
Prezzing concerns: Maryland Senator and prominent Trump critic Chris Van Hollen said he was “kicking the tires” on a presidential run.
Costly delay: Trump spending reviews slowed federal efforts to respond to the threat of screwworm, now present in Texas and New Mexico, Politico said.
Left hook: With Janeese Lewis-George set to become mayor of Washington, DC, observers noted that four major cities are now led or may be led by democratic socialists. New York (Zohran Mamdani) and Seattle (Katie Wilson) have incumbents, while Los Angeles (Nithya Raman) could join the column.
Defense case: Luigi Mangione, charged with murdering UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson, will assert a psychiatric defense in his state trial.
🧠 Pop Quiz!
What Nazi-related item did Donald Trump tell Vanity Fair in 1990 he kept by his bed during his first marriage?
Keep your eyes out for the answer below!
🌏 Anywhere But America
🇵🇸 Don’t forget Gaza: More than 1,000 people have been killed by Israel since the so-called “ceasefire” of October last year, Palestinian authorities said, including two in Khan Younis on Wednesday. More than 73,000 Palestinians have been killed since October 2023.
🇺🇦 🇷🇺 G7 boost: After attending the summit in France, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said leaders “agreed on additional strengthening of Ukraine’s air defense” against Russian missile and drone attacks.
🇺🇦 🇷🇺 Ukraine hits back: Ukraine launched one of its biggest drone attacks on Moscow, hitting an oil refinery for the second time this week, AP reported.
🇧🇷 Brazil warning: President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva told Donald Trump not to meddle in the forthcoming election, after the U.S. president bemoaned the conviction of Eduardo Bolsonaro for interfering in his father Jair Bolsonaro’s trial over an attempted coup in 2022.
🇺🇳 Dire prospects: UN agencies said that acute hunger is set to worsen in 13 hot spots, due to conflict, aid shortages, and climate shocks. Sudan, South Sudan, Yemen, and Palestine are the countries of greatest concern.
😳 WTF?!
Donald Trump seems to think “Steve” enjoyed his G7 press conference a lot.
🧠 Trivia answer: A copy of Mein Kampf. (Though the friend who gave him the book said it was actually a collection of Hitler’s speeches, as did his then wife Ivana, who said he kept it “in a cabinet by his bed.”)
ICYMI From Zeteo
Zeteo’s Martin Pengelly contributed to this newsletter.
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Thank you for acknowledging Juneteenth. Tyrump 45 was the worst person to ever become president, but he didn't do as much damage as Reagan. Tyrump 47 is even worse than 45 as a person due to senile loss of impulse control, and the damage is hard-to-believe. If this keeps up he will eclipse Reagan as the worst ever. On the hopeful side, the damage he is doing is so obvious and telling on the majority of voters that it may inspire reform and recovery from the long arc of destruction that goes back to 1980.
It is a shame that it took being stabbed in the back by the doddering, lying sociopath in the White House (um, what's left of it) for Senator Bill Cassidy (R-LA) to regenerate his spine. Senator, there are countless deceased Republicans and non-Republicans who are rolling over in their graves over the MoU the "lazy warmonger" agreed to. None of the stated aims for starting this illegal, immoral war have been achieved and we are in a far worse position than we were before this foray into futility was launched. The MoU should make us all nostalgic for the JCPOA hammered out during the Obama Administration.
As I understand it, if we were living in a sane country with a parliamentary government, the Iran War debacle and countless other atrocities would have caused the current regime/junta to collapse a long time ago. Elections would be announced and the majority would form a new government.
Of course, our Founders never envisioned that the USA would allow an out of control, petulant man-child narcissist to become POTUS (for the second time!) whose only MO is to feed his fragile ego and line his pockets with our money in defiance of the emoluments clause of the Constitution. Senator, these folks are surely rolling over in their graves too.