The New Iran Peace Deal Is a Humiliation for Trump and Netanyahu
…which is one reason to fear it might yet fall apart. Tehran is the winner here and it’s not afraid to say so.
The United States and Iran have agreed to a deal to end Donald Trump’s disastrous, illegal war – at least for now. The agreement, leaked details suggest, represents yet another humiliating defeat for the U.S. president, as well as for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
The initial goal of the U.S.-Israeli war in Iran was to topple the Iranian regime. That didn’t happen. The administration claimed the war would only last a few weeks. It stretched well beyond three months. The conflict only created more leverage for Iran, which successfully closed the Strait of Hormuz – stopping the flow of oil, causing energy prices to spike, and throttling the global economy.
Trump appears to have finally cried uncle. And on his 80th birthday, too.
The deal, which is expected to be signed on Friday, is technically another temporary ceasefire – a 60-day pause, during which the U.S. and Iran will negotiate over an end to Iran’s nuclear program. Still, both the U.S. and Iran are casting the agreement as a path to permanently end the war.
Israel appeared to try to torpedo the deal on Sunday by launching a new round of attacks on civilians in Beirut. It was a similar story to what happened a week before, with Trump once again criticizing Netanyahu in conversations with reporters on Sunday.
This time, however, the U.S. and Iran apparently managed to forge an agreement. As of Sunday, this peace deal would purportedly extend to Lebanon, where Israel has been leveling towns and villages.
Iranian state media is claiming the deal will force Israel to withdraw from Lebanon – and that the agreement will have the Strait of Hormuz open to commercial traffic, but under conditions set by Iran and Oman. This suggests Iran could continue to serve as the tollbooth operator for what may be the world’s most important waterway; this would represent a massive economic win for the regime in Tehran.
Further, as part of the agreement, the U.S. is expected to release $25 billion in frozen Iranian assets, and Iran will see significant sanctions relief.
To encourage Iran to reach an agreement in spite of Israel’s latest attacks in Lebanon, Trump has agreed to end his own naval blockade – which he launched in response to Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz – as soon as the deal is signed.
Small wonder Iranian state media claimed on Sunday, “The Islamic Republic of Iran has officially forced the American-Zionist enemy to end the war on all fronts.”
The war came at a tremendous human cost: U.S.-Israeli strikes killed thousands in Iran, including more than 100 schoolgirls on the very first day of the war. Israeli strikes on Lebanon have killed more than 3,700, including over 240 children, and displaced at least 1 million people. Iranian and Hezbollah strikes have killed more than 20 in Israel. The U.S. has confirmed at least 13 service members were killed during the war. And scores of others have also been killed across the region.
The president has been desperately searching for a way out of this war – but without having to admit he lost it. This remains the case today, which is why the administration intends to sell the agreement as a win, sources familiar with the situation tell Zeteo, no matter how clear it is that he lost.
“The plan is the same as it was months ago when the White House kept leaking that the president was going to ‘declare victory,’” a senior U.S. official says, meaning: “We won if we just say we did. Just keep saying: ‘Donald Trump won, America won, Donald Trump won.’ If we say it enough times, it’ll come true, won’t it?” (This official was speaking sarcastically.)
It is worth noting: This deal can still, of course, fall apart. Trump is notoriously mercurial, and could easily try to shift terms, which is how Lebanon was excluded from the previous ceasefire.
If this latest agreement is serious, Netanyahu and Israel could easily try to blow it up. And Netanyahu has made clear with the supposed “ceasefire” in Gaza that he may not feel bound to abide by any such deal negotiated by Trump.
On the other hand, Netanyahu’s attacks on Lebanon appeared to help pave the way for Sunday’s agreement, rather than scuttle it.
And Trump and administration officials do seem eager to end this disastrous war, and there is a good reason to do so. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, oil reserves in the U.S. and elsewhere could soon reach crisis levels, with vast economic consequences.
Trump has said he doesn’t think about Americans’ financial struggles, doesn’t care about the midterms, and even claimed to love “the inflation.” But if his mind is too addled to realize how nuts all that is in a midterms year, his party knows it all too well.
Absent Senator Lindsey Graham getting in Trump’s ear and persuading him to start firing again, the war with Iran could actually be over.
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