While the commentariat often talk about Arab Americans, seldom do we hear from them. But we should. A new national poll of Arab Americans has been shared exclusively with Zeteo. The findings are fascinating, from whom Arab Americans support in 2028 (on both sides of the aisle), to how many identify as socialists or MAGA Republicans, to how consequential Israel and Gaza will be to their votes.
Commissioned by the Arab American Institute and conducted by John Zogby Strategies, the poll surveyed Arab Americans nationwide ahead of the 2026 midterms and as the 2028 presidential election looms.
For years, media depictions of Arab American opinion have been at best mixed, at worst, often condescending or racist. Some such media treatment came in response to the Washington establishment’s disdain for those who stand against the bipartisan machine fueling Israel’s genocide in Gaza – with Arab Americans percevied as the primary source of inconvenient dissent (a proposition proved wrong time and again).
While corporate media has dismissed Arab Americans and many other groups when it comes to Israel and Palestine, the importance of the issue has not gone away. A whopping 90% of respondents to the new poll said the crisis in Gaza would be very or somewhat important in determining their vote in 2028.
A plurality, 41%, said they would not support a candidate who refused to end unconditional support for Israel, including 56% of respondents aged 18-29 and 46% of women.
As far as the 2028 primaries go, two candidates in each party stood above the rest.
On the Democratic side, voters were split between Kamala Harris (30%) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (29%), with Gavin Newsom on 18% and Ro Khanna, Josh Shapiro, and Pete Buttigieg trailing in single digits.
On the Republican side of the aisle, Donald Trump Jr. led the field at 30%, with Vice President JD Vance at 25%. Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz trailed at 8% each, and Ron DeSantis rounded out the field at 6%.
“In 2026, the unpopularity of the Trump administration and the Democratic Party’s movement away from unquestioned support for Israel have undone much of the damage the Biden administration caused to Arab American support in the 2024 election,” the Arab American Institute writes.
Still, the poll finds Arab Americans who identify as independents at a historic 31% – following national trends rejecting the two-party system. Nevertheless, respondents who identified as Democrats bounced back after a sharp decline during the past two administrations.
While a staying portion of Arab Americans identify as Republicans, when it comes to political ideology, the findings are a bit more nuanced. More respondents, for example, identified as democratic socialists than as MAGA Republicans and conservatives combined.
“There’s a convergence of views on critical issues, and Trump’s on the wrong side of every one of them,” James Zogby, managing director of Zogby Research Services, tells Zeteo. “This is a Democratic year for the community, and it’s a return to where they were in 2020. Now, where will they be in 2028? It depends, as they say, on the candidates’ views.”
Of those who identified as Democrats, a plurality (39%) identified as democratic socialists – more than any other ideological group.
When it comes to voting, 59% of respondents said they planned to vote for the Democratic candidate in their district, compared to just 26% who said they’d be voting for the Republican.
Unfortunately, 65% of Arab Americans reported experiencing discrimination due to their ethnicity or country of origin – the fourth conservative survey in which that figure has increased. Nearly three out of four respondents aged 18-29 report facing discrimination.
“Arab Americans are like the rest of us. In some ways, they’re the canary in the coal mine,” Zogby says. “When Israel was running roughshod over Palestinians, and people were beginning to get upset about not just about Gaza, but about the role that [pro-Israel lobby group] AIPAC plays [in U.S. politics], Arab Americans were given a warning…and people didn’t pay attention. And now what they’re saying is this appeal to bigotry, the ruinous nature of the policies on the economy, and dividing people – they’re saying ‘Enough’s enough, and we’re rejecting it,’ and so in many ways, this is a community that is pretty much where the country is.”
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