New Poll Suggests Gaza Ceasefire and Arms Embargo Would Help Dems with Swing State Voters

The YouGov/IMEU Policy Project poll found over a third of voters in Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia are more likely to vote for a Democratic nominee who pledges to withhold weapons to Israel.

Protesters in Atlanta, Georgia, demand a ceasefire in Gaza on June 27, 2024. Photo by Octavio Jones/Getty Images

A significant share of Democrats and independent voters in pivotal swing states Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona are more likely to vote for the Democratic presidential nominee (presumptively Kamala Harris) if said nominee pledges support for an arms embargo to Israel, and if President Joe Biden secures a permanent ceasefire in Gaza. The findings come in new polling commissioned by the Institute for Middle Eastern Understanding Policy Project and conducted by polling firm YouGov.

In Pennsylvania, 34% of respondents said they would be more likely to vote for the Democratic nominee if the nominee vowed to withhold weapons to Israel, compared to 7% who said they would be less likely. The rest said it would make no difference. In Arizona, 35% said they’d be more likely, while 5% would be less likely. And in Georgia, 39% said they’d be more likely, also compared to 5% who would be less likely.

Similar results were found when respondents were asked separately if they were more or less likely to vote for the Democratic nominee if Biden called for an end to US.-funded weapons to Israel or if the US president secured a ceasefire.

The results were particularly stark when looking at responses by those who voted for Biden in 2020 and are currently undecided. In Pennsylvania, 57% of such voters said they’d be more likely to support the Democratic nominee if they pledged to withhold additional weapons to Israel for committing human rights abuses; in Arizona, 44% said the same; in Georgia, 34% said so.

“This polling clearly shows that if the Democrats want Vice President Harris to be the strongest nominee possible going into November, then they should be demanding that President Biden stop the flow of weapons to Israel and secure a permanent ceasefire immediately,” IMEU Policy Project Executive Director Margaret DeReus said in a statement. “Not only are these policies popular, but they actually move voters from the ‘undecided’ or ‘not voting’ column and into the Democrats’ column in the states Democrats will need to win.”

Harris leads Trump in Pennsylvania by 2.1%, Arizona by 0.7%, and Georgia by 0.1%, according to the data-driven news site FiveThirtyEight’s polling averages as of Aug. 14. 

There are still many questions about the Harris campaign’s stance on Israel’s war on Gaza. She has served alongside Biden as he’s maintained largely unconditional support to Israel, and she has as much of a pro-Israel record as many other American politicians. While Harris has expressed overtures sympathetic towards the scores of Americans horrified by the war and the hundreds of thousands who in the primaries voted  “Uncommitted” in protest of US policy — and while she still serves as Biden’s vice president – she has yet to affirmatively make clear what policy change she would pursue.

Last week, organizers of the Uncommitted movement said they requested a meeting with Harris to further discuss their demands of an arms embargo & a permanent ceasefire, and that Harris "shared her sympathies and expressed an openness” to meeting.

Harris' national security adviser later clarified that Harris “does not support an arms embargo on Israel.”

Overall, Democrats and independents in all three states examined in the exhibited YouGov/IMEU poll have strong support for a permanent ceasefire and disapproval of unconditional aid to Israel. At least 80% of respondents in each state supported a ceasefire, while more than 60% disapproved of unconditional military aid to Israel. Roughly a quarter of respondents in all states said the violence in Gaza — and candidates’ positions on it — is important to them and will likely sway how they vote.

US Approves New Arms Sales

Despite the numbers showing overwhelming support for a change in direction, the Biden-Harris administration has dug its heels as Israel commits further alleged human rights violations.

Last week, the US said it will not sanction Netzah Yahuda, a far-right Israeli military unit accused of numerous human rights violations, including binding, gagging, and killing a 78-year-old Palestinian American. The US notified Congress that it was sending Israel $262 million worth of munition kits that make bombs more precise and “smart.” And on Friday, the Biden administration released $3.5 billion to Israel to buy more US weapons and equipment.

Less than a day later, Israeli forces – with US-made arms – attacked a school and mosque, killing nearly 100 people as they prayed inside.

On Monday, the US celebrated the 75th anniversary of the Geneva Conventions, saying it was a “fitting occasion to reaffirm our commitment to respecting international humanitarian law & to taking pragmatic steps to advance the humanitarian purposes underlying it,” and that they “call on others to do the same."

On Tuesday, Israeli forces killed newborn twins and their mother and grandmother, as their father was retrieving their birth certificates. Hours later, after telling Zeteo that the killing was “obviously incredibly heartbreaking,” the State Department announced the approval of $20.3 billion in arms sales to Israel.

Shelley Greenspan, the White House’s Liaison to the American Jewish Community, sent an email to community leaders Tuesday hailing “the leadership of President Joe Biden & VP Kamala Harris” in approving the arms sales.

Some who were made aware of the email were angered by the policy and the administration’s email, which did not acknowledge the suffering in Gaza. “It’s bad policy to be sending offensive weapons to Israel when we should be using all of our leverage to bring about a ceasefire,” Hadar Susskind, Americans for Peace Now CEO and Israeli military veteran, told Zeteo. “And it’s bad politics to tout it without any acknowledgment or consideration of the horror of what is happening in Gaza and the lives lost."

Lawyer and activist in the Arab-American community, Rebecca Abou-Chedid, echoed Susskind’s concerns. “Palestinians continue to be invisible to this administration. People are burying garbage bags of body parts because they can’t find their loved ones. I think it’s disturbing that they think this is what the Jewish community wants to hear at this moment.”

Greenspan did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Methodology: IMEU Policy Project and YouGov’s survey was conducted July 25-Aug. 9. 387 voters were surveyed in Arizona, with a margin of error of 5.7%. 374 voters were surveyed in Georgia, with a margin of error of 5.4%. 369 voters were surveyed in Pennsylvania, with a margin of error of 5.3%.