On this day in 2018, former Trump lawyer and fixer Michael Cohen pleaded guilty to charges arising from making payments to women who claimed affairs with his boss. Cohen served prison time and emerged as a stringent critic of Trump but has now crawled back onside, interviewing the president on his radio show Thursday night.
Happy Friday! It’s Swin, again. I have seen a lot of you making the same complaint, and it goes something like this: Donald Trump is such a horrendous U.S. president on so many different personal and policy fronts; I know his poll numbers are garbage right now, but how is it even possible that he’s consistently clinging to more than 30% favorability in the polling? What does a doddering fascist have to do to crack the 20s?
Well… in today’s ‘First Draft,’ I may have a surprise for you: You’re not the only ones wondering that. Some very well-connected consultants and Trump whisperers are thinking about the scary 20s, too – and they’re not pleased about it. Plus, Trump’s DOJ opens yet another absurd but frightening front in his war on his enemies, and the Iran stalemate keeps on stalemating hard. Let’s read in.
How Low Can He Go?
Did you see the news this week? (No, not that.)
“Trump approval falls to 33%, lowest of his presidency, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds,” Reuters reported on Monday. “Trump’s approval rating plummets to new low ahead of critical midterms,” announced Fox News, the president’s source of comfort and advice.
American Research Group (which doesn’t have the reputation other pollsters do) clocked him at an even 30.
“Nearly a quarter of Americans who voted for President Trump in 2024 believe they are worse off financially since he returned to office last year, according to a new survey,” said the Financial Times.
“Republican support for Trump has fallen as Democrats hold a big lead among enthusiastic midterms voters,” said the Economist and YouGov, noting that “about one-third (35%) of Americans strongly or somewhat approve of Donald Trump’s job performance as president.”
Private polls commissioned by different organizations and arms of the Republican elite “aren’t much better,” I’m told by an operative close to the White House who has knowledge of data causing a sustained bedwetting from much of the party that President Trump is going to drag them down hard in the critically important midterms.
Of course, one leading cause of these through-the-floor numbers is Trump’s catastrophic war on Iran. The data, and common sense, tell you that.