😱 GOP Freaks Out at Trump's 'Awful' Numbers

Republicans scramble as Trump’s ratings plummet, MTG resigns after a short stint in Trump enemy territory, and a US senator admonishes Israel’s detention of a Palestinian-American teen.

🎂 On this day in 1961, the great Indian author and dissident Arundhati Roy was born. (Happy birthday, Arundhati!) Mehdi interviewed her this fall, when she spoke about her new memoir, ‘Mother Mary Comes to Me.’

Good morning! It’s Swin, subbing in for Mehdi today. This is my second time as ‘First Draft’ author. Last time I saw you, I started off with a game. The answer – I tried to email each of you back – was Clint Eastwood.

Here’s today’s fun, frivolous game: Three of these are facts and one is a lie; email me the lie at asawin@zeteo.com. 1) I’ve shouted “HEY, ASSHOLE” right in Jeff Goldblum’s face. 2) I’ve been scolded during a live MSNBC segment by my co-panelist, the lead singer of Third Eye Blind, because of an article I wrote. 3) I am secretly featured on a song on a Tom Morello solo album. 4) Bradley Cooper once got so mad at me for something I said that he got me thrown out of a film premiere.

Good luck! Anyway… In today’s ‘First Draft,’ Republicans privately fret over the president’s abysmal approval rating, Marjorie Taylor Greene announces her resignation, a US senator calls attention to Israel’s detention of a Palestinian-American teen, and the Pentagon plans to launch a new phase of its Venezuela operations.

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Republicans Fear Trump’s ‘Awful’ Poll Numbers Could Wreck Them in 2026 – and 2028

Trump with members of his Cabinet on Aug. 25, 2025. Photo by Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images

When I covered Donald Trump’s 2020 campaign in the early summer hell-days of COVID-19, his senior aides kept telling me that “39” was their break-glass, or “nightmare scenario,” number. The number kept them up at night, and they routinely scanned their own internal data to see if they were, in fact, irreversibly screwed. Trump advisers were convinced that even with everything imploding around them during that deadly, grim year, the president could weather it and squeak out victory against Joe Biden – if he stayed in at least the low 40s in head-to-head polls.

Despite Trump’s lies to the contrary and those lies’ accompanying body count, Biden won. Team Trump was right to be spooked during the summer of 2020. But they were talking about head-to-head match-up polling; they weren’t even talking about polling on Trump’s approval rating, for which a consistent 39 or 38 number would have been a whole different terrain of catastrophic. In the final weeks ahead of Election Day 2020, Trump’s approval rating often hovered in the low-to-mid 40s.

We are now rounding out the first year of Trump’s rapaciously authoritarian, bloodthirsty return to power, after he not just swept the battleground states in 2024 but bested then-Vice President Kamala Harris in the popular vote. A lot could change between now and Election Day 2026 and 2028. And polls this year have consistently shown that the Democratic Party has a ton of work to do to pull itself out of the wilderness. But from where we stand today – in a still-battered US economy that voters generally view as Trump’s doing – it appears that MAGAworld may very well be living through a potentially worse version of their “nightmare scenario.”

Any poll can be an outlier. But in recent days and weeks, a spree of different high-quality polls has painted a portrait of a Republican president whose approval rating is currently swerving in and out of the high-30s among the American public. See for yourself:

• Nov. 18: “President Donald Trump’s approval rating fell to 38%, the lowest since his return to power, with Americans unhappy about his handling of the high cost of living and the investigation into the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found.”

• Nov. 12: “The survey…shows that only 33% of US adults approve of the way the Republican president is managing the government, down from 43% in an AP-NORC poll from March.”

• Nov. 3: “New CNN poll: President Trump’s approval rating falls to 37%, lowest of 2nd term.”

• Oct. 29: “39% of Americans strongly or somewhat approve of how Trump is handling his job as president, while 58% disapprove – a net approval of -19 [which is]…the lowest net approval Trump has received in any Economist / YouGov Poll in Trump’s second term, and lower than all but one poll in his first term.”

Trump and his White House are officially living in denial, with the president propagandizing on Saturday morning: “I HAVE JUST GOTTEN THE HIGHEST POLL NUMBERS OF MY ‘POLITICAL CAREER.’”

Privately, though, members of the GOP elite – on Capitol Hill, among Republican Party mega-donors and fundraisers, longtime conservative operatives, and some senior officials in Trump’s administration – are taking the grave poll numbers seriously. The intra-party freakout has spread, however quietly, rather quickly in recent weeks. Multiple senior Trump appointees have independently described the president’s poll numbers to me as “awful,” “fucking awful,” and unequivocally “really bad.” And if conditions persist, the freakout is only going to get uglier as we approach the midterms.

When they’re not on live TV fervently spinning for their party’s “KING,” these anxious elite conservatives aren’t willing to settle for the numbers Trump conjures in his own mind because (barring Trump’s republic-obliterating talk of running for a third term becoming anything other than talk) they aren’t expecting Trump to be on the ballot anymore. They are, however, increasingly fearful that Trump’s numbers will drag the party down in the 2026 midterms and quite possibly in the 2028 general election, numerous Republican consultants, lawmakers, right-wing media figures, high-roller donors, and even some diehard Trump advisers tell me. And due to Trump’s ironclad grip on the GOP base and his towering personality cult, most of them will feel forced to effusively embrace the president and his record, no matter how unpopular he gets.

“Trump’s bad numbers are absolutely a problem for Republicans on the ballot in 2026, as are the bad poll numbers on voters’ perception of costs and the economy. Voters wanted cost relief and they haven’t gotten it – and Trump and Republicans own it,” Molly Murphy, one of the Democratic Party’s top pollsters, said on Sunday. “Obviously, time will tell the depth to which this sentiment will hurt them, but I’d rather be a Democrat on the ballot in 2026 than a Republican all things equal.”

🗞️ What You Need to Know

• MTG resigns: After a major MAGA fallout, Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene announced that she is resigning from her seat, effective Jan. 5, 2026. She also denied reporting that she has considered running for president in 2028.

• Slotkin targeted: Michigan Sen. Elissa Slotkin received a bomb threat to her home just days after Trump accused her and other Democrats of “seditious behavior” that is “punishable by death.”

• Muslim leader to be deported: A Palestinian-born Muslim community leader in Texas, who has been in the US for decades, will be deported to Jordan after ICE detained him over two months ago, right after his green card was denied.

• Mad about Maduro: The US is set to launch a new phase of operations related to Venezuela in a mounting pressure campaign against President Nicolás Maduro, according to Reuters.

• ICE detains citizens: A 17-year-old high school student was among four US citizens ICE detained in the Portland area last week, according to an immigration advocacy group. ICE agents stopped Christian Jimenez when he was driving, broke the car window, and detained him, his family said. Video showed Jimenez telling the officers he’s a citizen, to which one agent responds, “Get out of the car,” and “I don’t care.”

• Ranked choice?: Axios reported that Democratic politicians have met with DNC Chair Ken Martin to advocate for ranked choice voting when choosing the next presidential candidate.

🧠 Pop Quiz!

In 2019, JD Vance founded a venture capital firm. What fantasy trilogy inspired the company’s name?

Keep your eyes out for the answer below!

🇵🇸 Don’t Forget Gaza

• Israel kills four: Israel killed at least four Palestinians in its latest violations of the so-called ceasefire in Gaza, Al Jazeera reported.

• UNRWA faces financial challenges: The UN Palestinian refugee agency (UNRWA), which provides critical aid and services to Palestinians in Gaza and across the West Bank, is facing a $200 million shortfall due in part to Israel’s ban on the agency, UNRWA said.

And in the occupied West Bank…

• Israeli forces kill 20-year-old: Israeli forces fatally shot a 20-year-old Palestinian man in the village of Deir Jarir, east of Ramallah. Local media reported the troops were providing cover for armed settlers as they attacked people’s homes. According to the UN, Israeli forces and settlers have killed over 1,000 Palestinians in the West Bank since Oct. 7, 2023, excluding additional fatalities in Israeli custody.

• Van Hollen demands Palestinian-American’s release: Senator Chris Van Hollen demanded the release of ​​Mohammed Zaher Ibrahim, a 16-year-old Palestinian-American who was blindfolded, handcuffed, and arrested by Israeli forces nine months ago. (Read more about Ibrahim’s story here.)

🚨 Don’t Miss It!

Do you have burning questions about Zohran Mamdani’s transition in New York City, what’s going on in Venezuela, or any of the insanity in Washington? Join Prem and me today for ‘Ask the Editor,’ Zeteo’s weekly livestreamed Q&A, at 11am ET (8am PT / 4pm GMT).

Also, I will be holding a special town hall Q&A with Ayman Soliman, the children’s hospital chaplain arrested by ICE, smeared as a “terrorist,” and jailed for 73 days. He is now finally FREE! Join us on Tuesday at 2pm ET (11am PT / 7pm GMT). Watch out for the registration email later today.

🌏 Anywhere But America

• 🇸🇩 Sudanese army chief rejects truce proposal: The chief of the Sudanese Armed Forces rejected a US-led ceasefire proposal, calling it the “worst document yet.” He also said that the mediation efforts by the Quad, which includes the US, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates, are biased so long as the UAE is involved. The UAE has been widely accused of arming the Rapid Support Forces paramilitary group – an allegation Abu Dhabi denies.

• 🇵🇰 Pakistan bombing: Suicide bombers killed at least three people and wounded several others in an attack that targeted the headquarters of a Pakistani paramilitary force in Peshawar today. No group has claimed responsibility.

• 🇮🇱🇱🇧 Israel strikes Beirut: An Israeli airstrike on a residential bloc in Beirut’s southern suburbs killed senior Hezbollah leader Haytham Tabtabai on Sunday. At least four other people were killed and 28 were wounded in the attack, according to Lebanon’s health ministry. It was Israel’s latest violation of the ceasefire – and the first attack on Beirut in months. It also comes just days ahead of Pope Leo XIV’s scheduled visit to Lebanon.

• 🇮🇱 Officers fired over Oct. 7: Israel’s chief of staff dismissed or reprimanded several senior officers, citing their failures to prevent Hamas’s Oct. 7, 2023, attack.

• 🇧🇷 Bolsonaro behind bars: Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro was taken into federal custody after he tried to pry off his ankle monitor. Bolsonaro, who was already under house arrest, is accused of trying to avoid his 27-year prison sentence for leading a coup attempt after his 2022 election loss.

• 🇬🇧🇷🇺 UK intercepts Russian navy vessels: The UK Defense Ministry said that it intercepted a Russian corvette and tanker as they sailed through the English Channel. The move comes just days after a Russian spy ship used lasers to prevent the Royal Air Force from tracking its activity.

• 🇻🇳🌧️ Vietnam floods: More than 90 people have died following heavy rain and flooding in central Vietnam, according to state media.

📊 Poll of the Day

Surprise, surprise!

Despite making these three issues the crux of his campaign, Trump is disappointing the majority of Americans, according to the latest CBS News/YouGov polling.

---

🧠 Trivia answer: The firm, Narya, was named after one of the rings in J.R.R. Tolkien’s ‘The Lord of the Rings’ series.

📺 Sunday Show Roundup

• Rep. Jasmine Crockett lambasted Marjorie Taylor Greene’s abrupt resignation announcement on CNN’s State of the Union: “Honestly, I was like, you’ve got to be kidding me. You’re on the other side of the president for one week, and you can’t take the heat. Imagine what it is to sit in my shoes.”

• MAGA is already playing the economy blame game ahead of fourth-quarter numbers. Trump economic adviser Kevin Hassett said on Fox that he expects “a lot of whining from left-wing critics” about the economy because the shutdown – under a Republican-led government – is estimated to cost more than he expected.

• Meanwhile, on Fox Business, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy dumped the blame for transit issues onto…travelers: “We have unruly passengers on airplanes. People dress up like they’re going to bed when they fly ... And so we want to push people as we come into a really busy travel season: Help people out, be in a good mood, dress up.” LOL.

• Just days after advocating against a primary challenge to Hakeem Jeffries, Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani told NBC’s Kristen Welker that he would want to see the House minority leader become speaker if Democrats take back the House.

• Despite safety threats following Trump’s statement calling for the death of certain Democratic congress members, these same elected officials are continuing to push back against Trump’s dangerous rhetoric. On ABC News, Senator Elissa Slotkin said that Trump is really trying to distract people from the major stories, like the Epstein list and inflation.

• Similarly, Senator Mark Kelly, who was also targeted by Trump, went on CBS’s Face the Nation to say that Trump’s words essentially mean that “loyalty to the Constitution is now punishable by death.”

🤦 WTF

After her UN speech, it looks like Nicki Minaj is ready to trade in her title of leader of the Barbz for the next leader of the United States of America???

It’s a resounding no from us.

🗓️ Mark Your Calendars

• Monday, Nov. 24: A US appeals court is expected to weigh Trump’s ban on the Associated Press, after the White House retaliated against the news agency for refusing to call the Gulf of Mexico the “Gulf of America.”

• Tuesday, Nov. 25: Donald Trump will pardon two turkeys from North Carolina as part of the annual White House Thanksgiving tradition.

• Wednesday, Nov. 26: The Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book, which provides key insights into the health of the US economy.

• Thursday, Nov. 27: Thanksgiving Day. Plus, Pope Leo will head to Turkey and Lebanon on his first trip abroad.

• Friday, Nov. 28: The International Criminal Court is set to rule again on former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte’s request for release as he awaits proceedings over alleged murders tied to his war on drugs.

ICYMI From Zeteo

This Week in Democracy – Week 44: Trump Defends MBS, Berates Women Journalists, and Accuses Dems of Sedition 'Punishable by DEATH'

'Young People Need to Be Given a Reason to Believe': Cameron Kasky on Israel, AI, Guns, and His Bid for Congress

How We Grew Numb to Trump’s Calls for the Slaughter of Anyone He Wants

Thank you, all, for riding along with me for my second attempt at ‘First Draft.’ You are now back in the much more capable hands of Mehdi and Peter. (Don’t forget to send me your emails about my latest “game!” I look forward to seeing all your guesses.) I hope to see you here again soon, but until then, please send all your love and kindness to my Zeteo colleagues Melanie Riehl, Akshay Gokul, and Minnah Arshad, who make this newsletter the awesome read that it is. Cheers, everyone, and I truly hope you had as much fun as I did. - Swin

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