🚨 Breaking: As it continued to strike Beirut, the Israeli military advanced into more areas of southern Lebanon, seizing new positions, and forcibly displacing thousands of Lebanese – marking a major escalation in the war with Iran and raising fears Israel may be considering a broad, full-scale invasion of Lebanon. Hezbollah, which launched missiles toward Israel for a second day, said Israel wanted an “open war, which it has not stopped since the ceasefire agreement…So let it be an open war.”
Good morning! Prem here, coming at you fresh off another day walking around Capitol Hill. And boy oh boy, do we have a lot to talk about…
In today’s ‘First Draft:’ Donald Trump’s administration says the quiet part loud on Iran and Israel – causing Democrats across previous ideological spectrums to coalesce around a new anti-war stance and Republicans to flounder; local officials are investigating Border Patrol leader Greg Bovino, the disgraced face of Trump’s occupation of Minneapolis; more from the Epstein files; and we have the latest from the US and Israel’s illegal war with Iran.
‘So Much For America First’
On Monday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio made the subtext the text: The US launched its already devastating war on Iran for… the sake of Israel.
After meeting with lawmakers on Capitol Hill, Rubio told reporters that “it was abundantly clear that if Iran came under attack by anyone, the United States or Israel or anyone, they were going to respond and respond against the United States.”
He added: “We knew that there was going to be an Israeli action, we knew that that would precipitate an attack against American forces, and we knew that if we didn’t preemptively go after them before they launched those attacks, we would suffer higher casualties and perhaps even higher those killed, and then we would all be here answering questions about why we knew that and didn’t act.”
The Trump administration has maintained that it launched its war on Iran because of some “imminent threat” Iran was posing. An argument already tenuous, given that months ago, the administration claimed to have “obliterated” Iran’s looming nuclear facilities (which was since proven wrong); and given there was actually more proof that, instead of posing a threat, Iran had been approaching a possible deal with the US.
But now, Rubio has said the truth, clearly. The “imminent threat” was that they knew Israel was about to attack Iran. And thus, Iran would surely retaliate by attacking US bases. And so, the logic goes, the US had to attack Iran first – completely abandoning ongoing negotiations. Notably, the US stopping Israel from attacking Iran wasn’t apparently on the menu.
Republicans on Capitol Hill were hesitant to respond, sometimes giving puzzling answers. Senator Lisa Murkowski, for example, when asked about the secretary of state’s comments, said she wasn’t going to speak on “any of these comments.” Instead, she said, she was going to have a “unique opportunity” alongside her Senate colleagues “to hear from the secretary of state, the secretary of defense, and others” and listen to what’s presented to them.
The perennially evolving statements from the administration are tying Republicans in knots. “This is not a so-called regime change war, but the regime sure did change,” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Sunday.
On Monday, Senator Tim Sheehy was asked about his own description of the war as “regime change,” versus Hegseth’s comments. The Montana Republican settled on: “I think the reason you’re hearing so many varied reasons is the varied threats this regime presents.”
As Republicans stumble, rank-and-file Democrats seem to be finding meaningful consensus.
Virginia Senator Tim Kaine slammed Rubio’s twisted logic on the “imminent threat” presented by Israel’s own desire to attack Iran. “That is what’s called a pretext, not an imminent threat.”
“Our foreign policy is not determined by what some other nation does. It should be determined by our own national interest,” Kaine added.
Senator Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut, a member of the armed services and homeland security committees, said he and his colleagues on the intelligence committee have seen no intel to suggest there was an “imminent threat” posed by Iran, and said Rubio’s comments “undercut” his administration’s own argument for war.
Some members were bemused in their assessments. Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley kept his criticism of Rubio’s logic succinct: “sounds like bullshit to me.”
“So, Netanyahu now decides when we go to war? So much for America First,” Senator Ruben Gallego tweeted Monday.
I asked Hawaii Senator Brian Schatz about Rubio’s logic. He mocked it. “I mean, an imminent threat is that one country might attack another country, and neither of those [is] our country? He’s a smooth talker, but that makes no damn sense. And everybody knows it,” he told me.
“Part of what they’re trying to get away with is they think we’re in an information environment, in which case you can say whatever you feel like saying. But this is different,” Schatz continued. “This is war, this is a regime change in the Middle East. Everybody is very dialed into the details. And that kind of bullshittery is not going to work with the American public. There was not an imminent threat. Israel attacking Iran does not constitute an imminent threat to the United States of America.”
Just as Rubio delivered his shocking comments on the Hill, Trump took to Truth Social to tell people to watch Benjamin Netanyahu on Sean Hannity’s show. Why the US president was serving as the Israeli prime minister’s press secretary was unclear. What transpired was just as befuddling. Asked by Hannity about “people that say” he dragged Trump into the war, Netanyahu responded with a low, four-second laugh.
He went on to say he’s tried to persuade repeated US administrations to “take action” on Iran. And, to his joy, Trump (and only Trump!) finally agreed.
“There’s never been a president like Donald J. Trump,” Netanyahu concluded.
That’s for sure.
🇮🇷 Iran War Updates
Death tolls: The death toll in Iran from US-Israeli strikes climbed to more than 785, the country’s Red Crescent Society said today. Six US troops have been killed as of yesterday afternoon, per US Central Command. Dozens of others have been killed across the region.
US embassies hit: Trump warned late Monday that “you’ll find out soon” what the US retaliation would be after the US embassy in Riyadh was struck by Iranian drones. Iran also reportedly hit the US embassy compound in Kuwait. No injuries have been reported.
Americans stranded: The US Embassy in Jerusalem said today that it could not help “evacuate or directly assist Americans in departing Israel,” despite the State Department telling US citizens across the region to leave immediately. Meanwhile, the State Department said it was evacuating non-emergency personnel from the UAE, Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, and Qatar.
Iranian school girls remembered: Thousands attended a mass funeral in the Iranian town of Minab today, after a strike hit an elementary school, reportedly killing 175 people, including many school girls.
Ground troops?: Trump told the New York Post that while he doesn’t believe US ground troops in Iran are necessary at the moment, he wouldn’t rule out putting troops on the ground. Separately, in his first live remarks about the war, Trump said his administration had projected the war to last “four to five weeks” but signaled it could be longer: “Whatever the time is, it’s OK, whatever it takes,” he said before quickly transitioning to talking about his ballroom project.
Hegseth’s admission: In unhinged remarks about the war with Iran yesterday, US Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth said, “No stupid rules of engagement, no nation-building quagmire, no democracy-building exercise, no politically correct wars. We fight to win and we don’t waste time, or lives.”
Tucker’s Mossad claim: Tucker Carlson yesterday claimed, without providing evidence, that Saudi Arabia and Qatar “arrested Israeli Mossad agents planning bombings” in their countries. Qatar's foreign minister later said there was no information on Mossad agents operating in the country.
Hillary Unloads
Watch former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton angrily walk out of her testimony to the House Oversight Committee for its investigation into Jeffrey Epstein, after MAGA congresswoman Lauren Boebert shared a picture of the 2016 Democratic presidential candidate in violation of the rules on closed-door testimony.
“I am done with this, if you guys are doing that. I am done,” erupts Clinton. “You can hold me in contempt from now until the cows come home.”
🧠 Pop Quiz!
How many times has the US officially declared war against another country?
Keep your eyes out for the answer below!
🗞️ What You Need to Know
Third time’s a charm: A federal judge halted Homeland Security Kristi Noem’s illegal policy restricting members of Congress from making unannounced visits to ICE detention centers. This is now the third time that this judge had to push back against Noem’s outrageous attempts to hide the inhumane conditions inside of ICE facilities from lawmakers.
Refund NOW: Trump’s administration attempted to delay the Supreme Court’s ruling ordering it to issue refunds for his illegal tariffs, but an appeals court swiftly rejected it. The White House will now have to go before a lower court to begin legal proceedings in carrying out the Supreme Court’s orders.
Epstein latest: The DOJ failed to pursue charges against men in Epstein’s circle who were accused of sexual assault – even when several victims were willing to help officials with investigations into these men. Records in the recent batch of Epstein files reveal that federal prosecutors interviewed at least seven victims of Epstein and his co-conspirators, but claim that they did not have enough evidence to charge the men named in these interviews.
Investigating the feds: A Minnesota county attorney’s office is collecting evidence from citizens of ICE’s unlawful behavior. The new initiative, called the Transparency and Accountability Project, is already investigating a number of incidents, including one in which since-demoted Border Patrol commander Greg Bovino was filmed tossing chemicals toward protesters.
😳 WTF?!
Trump’s looking rough in an all-new spot. What is he hiding now?
🌏 Anywhere But America
🇵🇸 Don’t forget Gaza: Gaza is running out of food and fuel, officials told Reuters, after Israel closed all border crossings. The UN said Israel agreed to temporarily reopen the Karem Shalom crossing today to gradually allow aid into the Strip, but the Rafah crossing will remain closed – blocking the only way for Palestinians in desperate need of medical treatment to leave the Strip.
🇸🇸 Mass atrocities in South Sudan: At least 169 people were killed after dozens of armed men attacked a town in South Sudan’s Ruweng Administrative Area, according to local officials. At least 90 people killed were civilians, while the remaining 79 were government soldiers.
🇭🇹 Election rumblings: Haiti officially opened a 10-day registration window for political parties to run in an upcoming general election – the first in more than a decade as the island nation continues to grapple with deadly gang violence.
🇦🇷 Milei’s labor reform under fire: Argentina’s largest trade union filed a lawsuit to block President Javier Milei’s sweeping labor reform, which would limit unions’ bargaining power across the country. The General Confederation of Labor (CGT) claimed that Milei’s reform is unconstitutional and will roll back key worker protections.
🇬🇧 Stunning poll: A YouGov poll for Sky News shows the Green Party, which just pulled off a historic victory in Gorton and Denton by-election, “leapfrogged” Labour and is now the most popular party across all age groups for people under 50. The hard-right Reform UK still leads the weekly voter intention poll at 23%, down one point, while the Greens jumped four points to 21%, and Labour and the Tories are both down two points at 16%.
🧠 Trivia answer: 11 times.
ICYMI From Zeteo
Zeteo’s Melanie Riehl and Akshay Gokul contributed to this newsletter.
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Excellent article Prem - Thank you! Rubio exposed what most of us knew already: Netanyahu Controls Trump! Gee I wonder why? Blackmail and Bribes! Traitor Coward Trump!
The idiots of the regime can say what they want - we know they are profound liars. Netanyahu is pulling trump's strings & he is dancing like a puppet. Meanwhile, America lives, Iranian lives (KIDS), & people surrounding areas lives, are at grave risk. If Netanyahu wants war either Iran, let him handle it himself!
As for the subject of WTF is on the orange blobs neck: it is satan eating him from the inside out.
One last item on Hillary Clinton: i am glad she got up & walked out! The members of this "gang" only wanted to TRY to intimidate her - she does not have to take this shit from a bunch of low-level piss-ants. Blood pressure: 135/80!