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Where Does Hamas Stand Three Years After Oct. 7 – and What Comes Next?

The militant group is reckoning with a strategic disaster. Palestinian political analyst Muhammad Shehada breaks down how the group got here and what it means for the movement today.

Muhammad Shehada's avatar
Muhammad Shehada
Oct 05, 2026
∙ Paid

Note from our Editor-in-Chief: Wednesday marks three years since the horrific Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel and the U.S.-funded Israeli genocide in Gaza that followed. We’ve planned a full week of coverage, including this piece by Muhammad Shehada below, as well as essays by Zeteo contributors Daniel Levy and Diana Buttu and an exclusive poem by Mosab Abu Toha. Plus, I have an in-depth monologue you won’t want to miss. If you’re not already a paid subscriber, become one today to get full access to all of Zeteo’s Oct. 7 coverage and more. – Mehdi


Hamas fighters on Feb. 8, 2025. Photo by Majdi Fathi/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Three years after Hamas launched its deadliest attack on Israel, the group finds itself in perhaps its worst predicament since its inception. The movement that has built its identity and purpose around armed resistance has come to realize that its weapons in Gaza won’t move the needle, but it can’t find a viable alternative to coalesce around.

Despite Israel killing more than 1,450 Palestinians since the Trump-brokered ceasefire of October 2025 went into effect, including many of Hamas’s top militant commanders, its militants haven’t fired a single bullet or rocket at Israel or its military in retaliation (Hamas has denied Israel’s accusations that the group has violated the ceasefire). In July, Hamas begrudgingly agreed to lay down its arms in Gaza in return for Israeli withdrawal. The group’s leaders even ceased their fiery speeches, rhetorical threats, and public spectacles of strength. Their latest statements focus more on survival than liberation. Hamas is now divided between those who call October 7 a “disaster” and a “strategic mistake,” and those who feel compelled to use Yahya Sinwar’s legacy to maintain popularity and legitimacy among the movement’s supporters.

How did Hamas get here? Where does the movement stand today? And what comes next?

Hamas’s Shocks and Miscalculations

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