The protests in Iran that began last month were triggered by the collapse of the country's currency. But the challenge for Iranian leaders now is economic as much as it is political.
This is a crucial analysis of Iran’s economic collapse. The protests are real and rooted in material suffering, but there’s a second layer shaping the external response. From the geopolitical behavioral patterns I map in World Ahead 2026 Part 2, Iran is now the next boundary test for a doctrine that no longer distinguishes foreign from domestic policy.
The November 2025 National Security Strategy authorizes sphere‑of‑influence operations. Venezuela proved the playbook works without institutional resistance. Iran is the next proof‑of‑concept, not because of Iranian freedom, but because the doctrine requires demonstrating that U.S. power can scale beyond the Western Hemisphere.
The pattern is systematic: identify a strategic asset, construct a moral pretext, apply force, and redirect the benefits. Venezuela followed that sequence. The Iran threats follow the same logic, now layered onto a state already collapsing under sanctions and corruption.
Selective outrage fits the pattern too. Silence on Gaza and sudden moral urgency on Iran isn’t about human rights, it’s geopolitical convenience. That’s classic moral licensing: humanitarian language used to justify strategic operations while ignoring equivalent suffering elsewhere.
Iran’s uprising is genuine. But the external framing isn’t about justice. It’s about testing whether the Venezuela doctrine can operate globally without constraint. That’s the through‑line connecting Venezuela, ICE killings, Greenland threats, and now Iran.
Appreciate the depth of your economic analysis. Adding the behavioral and strategic layer: this follows predictable authoritarian expansion patterns, and understanding that structure is essential to understanding what comes next.
Excellent analysis. It has been a world that the rule based order was there mainly to protect the Western world. That pretense has all gone down the drain and we no longer need to put up a charade
Yes, Current protest different from others in the past.
Firstly, violent and its nights. All other protest in past was day time and protester has demands, not this one.
Second, there reported Israel flags on these protests and all secret services of west has in play, people can tell.
Third timing is very interesting, looks like Venezuela operation has done US administration looking for next play.
Let don't forget last year when they were on the table with US, this administration has bombed them. And closed all doors for negations. I don't know what else US admins looking from Iran, they are not going to surrender. Very stupid
Unfortunately, I don’t think peace with Israel or America is possible. Both nations are ruled by extremists who actively seek war and confrontation and will never be satisfied until Iran is completely subservient to their interests.
Just as they did to the Palestinians, the Israelis and US federal government made every day Iranian life so unbearable via economic warfare, coercion, violence, and threats thereof that lashing out became inevitable. No matter what kind of government the Iranians have, if they can’t get the Israelis and USFG out of their hair and affairs, then they will be hard pressed to ever find abundant peace and happiness.
Professor Marandi who is in Iran had a different and more believable take on these protests and riots. Mossad and other western intelligence were active with their paid goons were looting, murdering people , setting fires to mosques, hospitals and other buildings. The locals came out in support of the government later. You can check the professor’s take on YouTube
No mention of the Israelis openly claiming that Mossad is involved in the violent protests in some parts of the country, or that there were reports of massive popular demonstrations in favor of the government in the past few days. Why's that?
30 years ago, the prices of foreign medication, textbooks etc.. were heavily subsidized using an exchange rate that was 1/20th of the market rate leading to smuggling of medications to neighboring countries.
I even remember one time that the hotel rate for official visitors was also 5% of the regular rate. It looks like this has not changed by much since then.
For all those talking about the Mossad role, I think the article is describing genuine grievances by the public thar were accentuated by the sanctions and certainly the Mossad had a role in inflaming the situation further by planting treasonous armed instigators.
The economy is the least important thing, as we experienced many uprisings by different reasons (election fraud, women's right, shooting airplane 752), so it's actually the Islamic republic regime's tyranny, and people being fed up.
For many times, they used false flag weakly-referenced videos burning Quran, dancing in Muharram, and doing so, just to try to show protesters a bunch of paid spies from other countries.
They killed a lot of people (and yes, they call it Islam as a justification every single time), and threaten all of the people on TV (making a lot of Iranian people lose their faith in Islam).
Their corruption and luxurious life styles hurts people the most (Shamkhani's family, Sasha Sobhani, ...) while they had promised to simple life like Rasul-Allah.
They blocked the internet entirely (and phone calls), while only some of the politicians have internet inside of Iran, and they fire off twits about the country being united against Israel and US, as if they're living in another country.
Even right now, I cannot call my family in Iran, because the phone calls don't go through. 😶
They sacrifice Islam, Palestinians, people's faith, and everything just to stay in power.
Meh. Referring to Atlantic Council un-ironically as a source of expertise on multiple exchange rates, when it blames Iranian government for " hardline foreign policies that challenge major world powers" - i.e., extricating itself from those major world power oppressions (the Shah, et. al.) - not a good look. Lots of empire assumptions here.
Also, let's not get too carried away on comparison to the performative "Venezuela Operation". Chavists are still in charge there. And unlike Venezuela, Iran has the firepower to destroy all the US bases in the MidEast PLUS Tel Aviv - simultaneously. Including hypersonics that the US and its client state Israel have nothing to arm against. As pointed out below, Marandi has the more believable take.
2026 is not only going to be a year of political crisis with Cheeto but a financial one as well 1929 all over again And just like the COVID crisis he will be as incompetent to steer the country out of the events to unfold
Over at MacleodFinance substack channel(https://bit.ly/3YMkaS9) Alasdair does an interview with a metal broker and sizes up the reasons for the gold and silver astounding upside price breakout and explains why silver is ready to go higher yet
This is an excellent article. Thanks so much for locating a reliable source.
This is a crucial analysis of Iran’s economic collapse. The protests are real and rooted in material suffering, but there’s a second layer shaping the external response. From the geopolitical behavioral patterns I map in World Ahead 2026 Part 2, Iran is now the next boundary test for a doctrine that no longer distinguishes foreign from domestic policy.
The November 2025 National Security Strategy authorizes sphere‑of‑influence operations. Venezuela proved the playbook works without institutional resistance. Iran is the next proof‑of‑concept, not because of Iranian freedom, but because the doctrine requires demonstrating that U.S. power can scale beyond the Western Hemisphere.
The pattern is systematic: identify a strategic asset, construct a moral pretext, apply force, and redirect the benefits. Venezuela followed that sequence. The Iran threats follow the same logic, now layered onto a state already collapsing under sanctions and corruption.
Selective outrage fits the pattern too. Silence on Gaza and sudden moral urgency on Iran isn’t about human rights, it’s geopolitical convenience. That’s classic moral licensing: humanitarian language used to justify strategic operations while ignoring equivalent suffering elsewhere.
Iran’s uprising is genuine. But the external framing isn’t about justice. It’s about testing whether the Venezuela doctrine can operate globally without constraint. That’s the through‑line connecting Venezuela, ICE killings, Greenland threats, and now Iran.
Appreciate the depth of your economic analysis. Adding the behavioral and strategic layer: this follows predictable authoritarian expansion patterns, and understanding that structure is essential to understanding what comes next.
—Johan
Former Foreign Service Officer
Excellent analysis. It has been a world that the rule based order was there mainly to protect the Western world. That pretense has all gone down the drain and we no longer need to put up a charade
If the Ashkenazy werent living in the middle east, there could be less conflict with all Arabs.
But for some reason they must all be bastedised.
lauriemillerjade.com
This article never once mentioned MOSSAD operation! All this BS can be over yesterday if Iran gives up on Palestine!!!
Yes, Current protest different from others in the past.
Firstly, violent and its nights. All other protest in past was day time and protester has demands, not this one.
Second, there reported Israel flags on these protests and all secret services of west has in play, people can tell.
Third timing is very interesting, looks like Venezuela operation has done US administration looking for next play.
Let don't forget last year when they were on the table with US, this administration has bombed them. And closed all doors for negations. I don't know what else US admins looking from Iran, they are not going to surrender. Very stupid
Unfortunately, I don’t think peace with Israel or America is possible. Both nations are ruled by extremists who actively seek war and confrontation and will never be satisfied until Iran is completely subservient to their interests.
Just as they did to the Palestinians, the Israelis and US federal government made every day Iranian life so unbearable via economic warfare, coercion, violence, and threats thereof that lashing out became inevitable. No matter what kind of government the Iranians have, if they can’t get the Israelis and USFG out of their hair and affairs, then they will be hard pressed to ever find abundant peace and happiness.
Professor Marandi who is in Iran had a different and more believable take on these protests and riots. Mossad and other western intelligence were active with their paid goons were looting, murdering people , setting fires to mosques, hospitals and other buildings. The locals came out in support of the government later. You can check the professor’s take on YouTube
,
No mention of the Israelis openly claiming that Mossad is involved in the violent protests in some parts of the country, or that there were reports of massive popular demonstrations in favor of the government in the past few days. Why's that?
Makes one wonder who Zeteo is serving, in this context.
30 years ago, the prices of foreign medication, textbooks etc.. were heavily subsidized using an exchange rate that was 1/20th of the market rate leading to smuggling of medications to neighboring countries.
I even remember one time that the hotel rate for official visitors was also 5% of the regular rate. It looks like this has not changed by much since then.
For all those talking about the Mossad role, I think the article is describing genuine grievances by the public thar were accentuated by the sanctions and certainly the Mossad had a role in inflaming the situation further by planting treasonous armed instigators.
The economy is the least important thing, as we experienced many uprisings by different reasons (election fraud, women's right, shooting airplane 752), so it's actually the Islamic republic regime's tyranny, and people being fed up.
For many times, they used false flag weakly-referenced videos burning Quran, dancing in Muharram, and doing so, just to try to show protesters a bunch of paid spies from other countries.
They killed a lot of people (and yes, they call it Islam as a justification every single time), and threaten all of the people on TV (making a lot of Iranian people lose their faith in Islam).
Their corruption and luxurious life styles hurts people the most (Shamkhani's family, Sasha Sobhani, ...) while they had promised to simple life like Rasul-Allah.
They blocked the internet entirely (and phone calls), while only some of the politicians have internet inside of Iran, and they fire off twits about the country being united against Israel and US, as if they're living in another country.
Even right now, I cannot call my family in Iran, because the phone calls don't go through. 😶
They sacrifice Islam, Palestinians, people's faith, and everything just to stay in power.
ZETEO: Vital information about your world you won't find anywhere else.
Meh. Referring to Atlantic Council un-ironically as a source of expertise on multiple exchange rates, when it blames Iranian government for " hardline foreign policies that challenge major world powers" - i.e., extricating itself from those major world power oppressions (the Shah, et. al.) - not a good look. Lots of empire assumptions here.
Also, let's not get too carried away on comparison to the performative "Venezuela Operation". Chavists are still in charge there. And unlike Venezuela, Iran has the firepower to destroy all the US bases in the MidEast PLUS Tel Aviv - simultaneously. Including hypersonics that the US and its client state Israel have nothing to arm against. As pointed out below, Marandi has the more believable take.
This is a foreshadowing As the dollar loses value from our own doing
This is a great article about the economic pressures faced by the Iranian people. Thank you for writing it.
America Is Heading For A Financial Crisis As Well
2026 is not only going to be a year of political crisis with Cheeto but a financial one as well 1929 all over again And just like the COVID crisis he will be as incompetent to steer the country out of the events to unfold
Over at MacleodFinance substack channel(https://bit.ly/3YMkaS9) Alasdair does an interview with a metal broker and sizes up the reasons for the gold and silver astounding upside price breakout and explains why silver is ready to go higher yet
Ignore this at your own financial peril