EXCLUSIVE POLL: Michigan’s Dem Senate Race Is Wide Open, AIPAC Is Toxic, Hasan Piker Is Not
The Michigan Senate primary is effectively a tie, and Democratic voters are more worried about AIPAC’s influence than Hasan Piker. Plus, a fifth accuser waves Eric Swalwell out of Congress.
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Good morning! Andrew here to break down the results of a poll of the Michigan Democratic Senate primary conducted exclusively for Zeteo and Drop Site News. What’s the upshot? Well, for one thing, voters care a lot less about Hasan Piker’s political influence than that of AIPAC, America’s foremost genocide lobby. Who would have guessed?
There’s no paywall in this edition of ‘First Draft,’ thanks to our sponsor Ground News.
In today’s ‘First Draft,’ we dive into the Michigan primary, a shocking fifth accuser precedes Eric Swalwell’s resignation from Congress, and Donald Trump’s war in Iran bites deep on the home front.
Tied Up in Michigan
Michigan’s Democratic primary for US Senate is a three-way dead heat, according to a new poll conducted for Zeteo and Drop Site News.
The survey additionally found that likely Democratic primary voters are far more concerned about the pro-Israel lobby AIPAC’s influence on candidates than the influence of Hasan Piker, the leftist Twitch streamer who campaigned with candidate Abdul El-Sayed at two Michigan universities last week.
The poll from Data for Progress found that 22% of likely Democratic primary voters support El-Sayed, endorsed by Bernie Sanders and a vocal critic of Israel; 23% support Haley Stevens, a conservative, pro-Israel Democrat backed by party leaders in Washington, DC; and 22% support Mallory McMorrow, the J Street-endorsed candidate positioning herself in between Stevens and El-Sayed.
Notably, a third of voters were undecided.
The poll also tested what would happen in a two-way race, and found that McMorrow would benefit more from El-Sayed dropping out than vice versa: His voters are more likely to consider McMorrow their second choice, whereas McMorrow’s are more likely to call Stevens their second choice, suggesting that McMorrow is not simply splitting the progressive vote.
However, in all of the scenarios that were polled, a plurality of likely Democratic primary voters remained unsure as to whom they would support – suggesting, again, that the race remains fully up for grabs with three-and-a-half months left before the Aug. 4 primary election.
Meanwhile, voters are not overly concerned about El-Sayed’s decision to hold rallies with Piker – despite the aggressive anti-Piker cancellation campaign led by the centrist think tank Third Way, egged on by both McMorrow and Stevens.
Per the poll, 13% of likely Democratic primary voters in Michigan view Piker favorably, while 7% view him negatively. The vast majority of them say they don’t know enough about Piker to have an opinion about him.
The poll gave voters more context about the controversy to assess whether it would influence their vote. They were told that El-Sayed’s opponents had criticized him for planning rallies with Piker, accusing Piker of antisemitism and highlighting past controversial remarks, and that El-Sayed has argued that criticism of Israel should not be confused with antisemitism.
Asked then whether they approved or disapproved of El-Sayed inviting Piker to join his rallies on college campuses, 40% said they approved, 30% said they disapproved, and 30% said they weren’t sure.
Michigan primary voters appear significantly more concerned about the influence of AIPAC, America’s top pro-Israel lobby, with far less prodding: 64% said they are less likely to support a Senate candidate who receives donations from AIPAC and other pro-Israel groups, while 10% said they are more likely.
The poll found 62% of Michigan Democratic primary voters agreed that they are less likely to trust that a candidate would stand up for Michiganders in general if they won’t stand up to AIPAC; 13% disagreed with this sentiment.
Data for Progress polled 515 likely Democratic primary voters in Michigan, from April 2-8.
Stevens has long been an AIPAC favorite. AIPAC’s political action committee raised over $340,000 worth of direct campaign donations for Stevens in early 2025, just before she announced her bid for Senate, though it has not raised money directly for her Senate campaign. Last month, Stevens taped a promotional video for AIPAC, which in 2022 helped her oust former Michigan Democratic Rep. Andy Levin, a progressive Zionist who argued for Palestinian rights.
El-Sayed and McMorrow have both been critical of Israel’s genocide in Gaza, though McMorrow has been reluctant to describe it this way – and has instead complained that the word “genocide” has become some kind of “political purity test.”
As Drop Site News previously reported, McMorrow privately drafted a position paper for AIPAC, according to one of her supporters, before publicly demanding a permanent ceasefire in Gaza and saying that “this violence needs to stop.”
McMorrow has been endorsed by the liberal pro-Israel lobby J Street.
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🇮🇷 Iran War Updates
Death tolls:
Iran: Iran’s Human Rights Activists News Agency said last week the death toll from US-Israeli strikes stands at more than 3,000, including 1,700 civilians.
Lebanon: Israel has killed more than 2,124 people, including at least 168 children, in Lebanon, according to figures from the country’s Health Ministry.
US troops: At least 13 US troops have died in incidents related to the war.
Israel: At least 34 people, including 12 Israeli soldiers, have been killed and thousands injured in Iranian and Hezbollah attacks.
Elsewhere in the region: Dozens of others have been killed across the region, including four Palestinian women in the occupied West Bank.
And in more Iran war news…
Talks hint: Donald Trump hinted that new talks with Iran may happen “over the next two days” in Pakistan. He previously said the US would not return for more talks in the country, after the first failed round.
Strait open: The first day of Trump’s blockade of Iranian ports made little difference to traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reported, saying shipping data showed at least three Iran-linked tankers crossed the waterway.
Over/under: Emerging from the White House, Fox host Maria Bartiromo said Trump told her the war with Iran was “over.” The full interview will run on Wednesday.
Home front: Republican Senator Roger Marshall had an odd message for Americans opposed to Trump’s war: “I’m sorry that gas prices are going up, but… your national security is even more important than your pocketbook.”
Farm crisis: According to the American Farm Bureau Federation, 70% of US farmers cannot afford enough fertilizer to get them through the year. Fertilizer is just one commodity hit by conditions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Lebanon latest: Israeli and Lebanese officials held their first direct talks in more than 30 years in Washington, despite Benjamin Netanyahu initially opposing the move. Both countries said talks were productive and were expected to continue. Meanwhile, Israel issued new forced evacuation orders to residents in the southern part of the country.
Swalwell Quits After New Accuser Speaks Out
After Lonna Drewes became the fifth woman to accuse Eric Swalwell of sexual misconduct, the California Democrat formally resigned from the US House. Appearing before reporters in Beverly Hills, Drewes, a model who works in fashion technology, said the former gubernatorial candidate drugged, choked, and raped her in 2018.
“My delay in taking action against Eric was driven by fear, not doubt,” Drewes said. “Fear of his political power, his background as an attorney, and his family law enforcement ties.”
A lawyer for Swalwell said he “categorically and unequivocally denies each and every allegation,” but he quit Congress all the same. So did Tony Gonzales, a Texas Republican who admitted to an affair with an aide who died by suicide.
🗞️ What You Need to Know
Pro-sedition president: Trump’s DOJ wants to vacate the seditious conspiracy convictions of Proud Boys and Oath Keepers Jan. 6 leaders, whose sentences were commuted.
Speak now: House Speaker Mike Johnson, a devout Christian, said he asked Trump to take down an AI image depicting himself as Jesus, which Trump claimed to think showed him as a doctor.
Court move: Trump refused to concede defeat in his suit against the Wall Street Journal, seeking to find if the paper acted with actual malice in reporting on his lewd birthday letter to Jeffrey Epstein.
Amend to that: Rep. Jamie Raskin introduced a bill to form a commission to study whether Trump should be removed under the 25th Amendment.
Repay day: A refund process for payments made before Trump’s tariffs were made illegal begins April 20, officials said. Actual repayments may take longer.
Sparse crowd: JD Vance spoke at a Turning Point event in Athens, Georgia. Not many people turned up to listen.
Spy play: Republicans continued to tie themselves in knots over whether to reauthorize surveillance powers that allow warrantless wiretaps of US citizens.
Trump turns again: Trump lashed out at Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, one of his closest European allies, after she called his attacks on the pope “unacceptable,” and after her government suspended a defense agreement with Israel. “Giorgia Meloni doesn’t want to help us in the war,” Trump told an Italian newspaper. “I’m shocked at her. I thought she had courage, but I was wrong.”
🧠 Pop Quiz!
Presidents have used the 25th Amendment to temporarily transfer power four times. In 1985, Ronald Reagan empowered George H.W. Bush for eight hours while he had cancer surgery. What procedure necessitated two transfers under George W Bush and one under Joe Biden?
Keep your eyes out for the answer below!
🌏 Anywhere But America
🇵🇸 Don’t forget Gaza: Hamas reiterated its opposition to the disarmament plan put forth by the so-called “Board of Peace,” citing Israeli ceasefire violations. Israel conducted targeted airstrikes throughout Gaza, killing at least 11 Palestinians, including two children.
🇰🇼 Unjust detainment: Human rights advocates called for the release of journalist Ahmed Shihab-Eldin, held in Kuwait for six weeks after publishing photos and videos of a fighter jet crash, as Gulf countries crack down on coverage of the war with Iran.
🇸🇴 Deadly tensions: Somalia’s army carried out a military operation, with assistance from international partners, in the autonomous state of Jubbaland, killing 27 al-Shabab fighters and seizing weapons and equipment.
🇮🇪 Price outrage: After Irish haulers, farmers, and agricultural workers blocked oil infrastructure in response to rising fuel prices, two lawmakers withdrew from the parliamentary coalition in power.
🙄 WTF?!
Tim: For the record, gas prices are higher now than they were when Joe Biden left office. But of course, you and the rest of the GOP will recycle that line all the way to November, cause you have no excuse for Donald Trump hurting folks at the pump.
🧠 Trivia answer: Colonoscopies.
ICYMI From Zeteo
Zeteo’s Martin Pengelly and Akshay Gokul contributed to this newsletter.
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