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First Draft

First Draft: Bumbling Warmonger Picks Worst Possible Time to Escalate His Iran War

Our reporting from inside the White House explains why Trump is restarting his disastrous assault on Iran. Plus, Marco Rubio publishes a Red Scare blacklist of people who have... opinions on Cuba.

Prem Thakker's avatar
Asawin Suebsaeng's avatar
Prem Thakker and Asawin Suebsaeng
Jul 21, 2026
∙ Paid

On this day in 2024, Joe Biden bowed to pressure building since a catastrophic debate against Donald Trump and became the first president since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968 not to run for re-election. For Democrats, however, it was too late.

Good morning, friends; it’s Prem and Swin again. Hope your air quality is clearer than of late and your lettuce is fresh and safe!

In today’s ‘First Draft,’ we have reporting from inside the White House on what exactly is leading Trump to re-escalate the Iran war to even more dangerous levels than before. Plus, the State Department releases a 100-page report on Cuba’s “assault” on the U.S., including a list of Americans whose opinions on the island nation Marco Rubio doesn’t like.

‘They Pissed Him Off’

President Donald Trump in the Oval Office on July 14, 2026. Photo by Andrew Harnik/Getty Images.

Donald Trump yearned for a ceasefire deal. When it came, it was a losing deal for him, underscoring how desperate he was to get out of his self-made problem. He swallowed it. And things were beginning to alleviate. Oil prices started to go down. But now, mere weeks later, not only has the ceasefire collapsed but the Mad King is drastically ratcheting up his disastrous war once again.

And Trump is doing so as the global economy runs dangerously close to going off the cliff. U.S. oil reserves are at the lowest level since 1983. And while global reserves helped stave off higher price increases previously, those reserves have now been tapped; there is less and less to draw from as the highly unnecessary crisis gets increasingly worse.

And as Trumpland apparently tries to restart negotiations – while threatening more drastic violence – Iran is expressing little interest. To make matters worse, the Houthis are moving to close the Bab-al-Mandeb Strait to Saudi tankers. The blockade would hinder an additional 7% of global oil supply – almost doubling the oil currently reduced by the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

All the while, Ukraine has dismantled Russia’s refinery capacity. All to say, the likelihood of global oil shortages has spiked.

This was supposed to be over.

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