"Don’t dems want someone who can win? He can’t. It’s over. Move on."
But we can't be sure, right? Biden may lose, he may win, the polls are still close. And if he's replaced with someone else, we'd be in the same situation, the polls would still be close. I think we just have to accept that there's no way to know for sure.
"Don’t dems want someone who can win? He can’t. It’s over. Move on."
But we can't be sure, right? Biden may lose, he may win, the polls are still close. And if he's replaced with someone else, we'd be in the same situation, the polls would still be close. I think we just have to accept that there's no way to know for sure.
He isn’t going to win. He has lost the youth vote, months ago, and now he has lost the faith of some big donors and even colleagues. He has such an issue that he has managed to detract from Trump’s constant lies and the focus of everyone everywhere is on his decline, his flubs, his weakness, his age. This time last cycle everyone was breathing a sigh of relief that our candidate was boring and normal as opposed to Trump. Not the case anymore. He’s lost. Time to face facts.
What I like about fivethirtyeight is that is doesn't just give one poll, it shows a roundup of all the polls. They're showing five polls post-debate, in Trump's best he's ahead 4 (42-38) in the others he's ahead 3. ahead 1, and tied. What I'm saying is it's close, that's what the polls are saying.
I agree but it should never have been so close, you know? I don't know what could save him but something big needs to happen so he can look better. Otherwise, this discussion will never go away.
It's a two-party system, you get the nomination of one of the two parties you get about half the votes. That's how strong negative partisanship is these days. I don't think anything is gonna change that, it's gonna be a white-knuckle ride right to Nov. 5 no matter who the Democratic nominee is.
The problem for Biden is that between 30%-40% of Democrats will simply not go vote. They despise Trump & MAGA, but Biden & the DNC don’t inspire enough for them to make the effort to go & vote. And without that vote, he will not win.
The Democrats need someone like Biden but who is 30 years younger, someone who can that clearly & succinctly communicate the Democratic message & who can mobilise disappointed voters. But unfortunately Biden is not that person. At the height of his popularity, even Mandela realised when to hand over the baton of leadership to the next generation to carry on with the fight, for better or worse.
The problem is that non-voting is effectively a vote - which weighs in favour of the other side. And if one '(ref)uses' one's right to vote, choosing to be silent, one effectively loses the right to be disappointed/ angry/ frustrated when a very undesirable opposition gains power.
In any election about half of those eligible don't vote, but those who do vote tend to do so, election after election, for both good and bad candidates. Voting gets to be a habit once you've done it for a few elections.
I know there will be habitual voters who usually vote for the Dems and who won't this time because of Gaza. I even know some. It's nothing like 30%. In the Dem primaries, "uninstructed", the protest vote option, never got more than 15% and I know a lot of people who voted uninstructed (I did) and most of them will be voting Biden (I sure will).
He is very likely to lose. The fact that the polls are looking the way they do at the moment is alarming enough. Best polls basically say it is a tie which is historically awful and weak. Against this candidate? And lets be real, this discussion about his decline in the media, the voters and his party will not only not go away but it will get worse, every time he comes out and says "my VP Trump" or that he beat medicare.
And Bidens denial and behavior is becoming very Trumpian. He lost the youth vote, is likely to lose almost every swing state and now even New York is turning into a purple state. I mean...
If it's a tie, then why is Biden more likely to lose than Trump? When polls are tied, that means it's a tossup, and we can't predict the outcome, it's like trying to predict a coin flip.
"Don’t dems want someone who can win? He can’t. It’s over. Move on."
But we can't be sure, right? Biden may lose, he may win, the polls are still close. And if he's replaced with someone else, we'd be in the same situation, the polls would still be close. I think we just have to accept that there's no way to know for sure.
He isn’t going to win. He has lost the youth vote, months ago, and now he has lost the faith of some big donors and even colleagues. He has such an issue that he has managed to detract from Trump’s constant lies and the focus of everyone everywhere is on his decline, his flubs, his weakness, his age. This time last cycle everyone was breathing a sigh of relief that our candidate was boring and normal as opposed to Trump. Not the case anymore. He’s lost. Time to face facts.
I just don't take people seriously when they say they know FOR SURE how this will turn out. It's just too close.
How do you explain the polls? Despite all the talk about how the debate was a disaster for Biden, it's still basically a toss-up.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo
Thats ONE pol and almsot every other poll and even their internal polling looks horrible for Biden
What I like about fivethirtyeight is that is doesn't just give one poll, it shows a roundup of all the polls. They're showing five polls post-debate, in Trump's best he's ahead 4 (42-38) in the others he's ahead 3. ahead 1, and tied. What I'm saying is it's close, that's what the polls are saying.
I agree but it should never have been so close, you know? I don't know what could save him but something big needs to happen so he can look better. Otherwise, this discussion will never go away.
It's a two-party system, you get the nomination of one of the two parties you get about half the votes. That's how strong negative partisanship is these days. I don't think anything is gonna change that, it's gonna be a white-knuckle ride right to Nov. 5 no matter who the Democratic nominee is.
The problem for Biden is that between 30%-40% of Democrats will simply not go vote. They despise Trump & MAGA, but Biden & the DNC don’t inspire enough for them to make the effort to go & vote. And without that vote, he will not win.
The Democrats need someone like Biden but who is 30 years younger, someone who can that clearly & succinctly communicate the Democratic message & who can mobilise disappointed voters. But unfortunately Biden is not that person. At the height of his popularity, even Mandela realised when to hand over the baton of leadership to the next generation to carry on with the fight, for better or worse.
The problem is that non-voting is effectively a vote - which weighs in favour of the other side. And if one '(ref)uses' one's right to vote, choosing to be silent, one effectively loses the right to be disappointed/ angry/ frustrated when a very undesirable opposition gains power.
In any election about half of those eligible don't vote, but those who do vote tend to do so, election after election, for both good and bad candidates. Voting gets to be a habit once you've done it for a few elections.
I know there will be habitual voters who usually vote for the Dems and who won't this time because of Gaza. I even know some. It's nothing like 30%. In the Dem primaries, "uninstructed", the protest vote option, never got more than 15% and I know a lot of people who voted uninstructed (I did) and most of them will be voting Biden (I sure will).
I basically agree with that, but I honestly think an other candidate would do better. But either way, it's a massive gamble!
He is very likely to lose. The fact that the polls are looking the way they do at the moment is alarming enough. Best polls basically say it is a tie which is historically awful and weak. Against this candidate? And lets be real, this discussion about his decline in the media, the voters and his party will not only not go away but it will get worse, every time he comes out and says "my VP Trump" or that he beat medicare.
And Bidens denial and behavior is becoming very Trumpian. He lost the youth vote, is likely to lose almost every swing state and now even New York is turning into a purple state. I mean...
"Best polls basically say it is a tie..."
If it's a tie, then why is Biden more likely to lose than Trump? When polls are tied, that means it's a tossup, and we can't predict the outcome, it's like trying to predict a coin flip.