First Draft – EXCLUSIVE: Dem Poll Finds Trump’s Iran War ‘Expanded the Senate Map’
Trump’s war in Iran has cratered his approval on cost of living and created new toss-up races. The president gave one of the war's architects, Lindsey Graham, the embarrassing send-off he deserves.
On this day in 2024, Nicolás Maduro was declared winner of the Venezuelan presidential election, securing a third term amid claims of fraud. He is now in custody in New York, having been kidnapped by the Trump administration in January.
Good morning! Andrew here. Donald Trump’s failing forever war in Iran is heating up once again. Whether that war continues or ends with Trump’s unconditional, final surrender, the conflict appears to be good news either way for Senate Democrats in their hopes to regain the chamber.
In today’s ‘First Draft,’ we review exclusive new polling from Senate Dems’ super PAC showing the cost of that war for Republicans. Plus, Trump eulogizes his favorite warmonger, Lindsey Graham, in an appropriately debauched performance, and Kentucky’s governor demands an actual sign that Mitch McConnell is alive.
Idiot’s War Helps Dems
Donald Trump’s poll numbers weren’t great before he launched his catastrophically stupid and illegal war in Iran, but his never-ending conflict of choice has made things worse for Republicans and a lot better for Democrats as they seek to flip the Senate, according to new polling data shared exclusively with Zeteo.
Polling conducted for Senate Majority PAC, a super PAC affiliated with Democratic Senate leaders, found that Trump’s approval rating on gas prices dropped from 46% on March 1, right after he began the Iran war, to 33% on July 14.
Lauren French, communications director for the super PAC, tells Zeteo higher gas prices and grocery prices have voters viewing “this war as a real negative, even more than they did when it started.”
The group writes in a new memo that Trump’s war in Iran has “created new pathways for an expanded battleground map,” adding: “Ohio and Alaska have moved to toss-up, and Iowa’s open seat has become one of the most competitive races in the country. None of that was true a year ago.”
Per the polling, Trump’s approval on the cost of living has fallen to severe lows within key battleground states, such as Maine (32%) and Michigan (34%). In redder states where Democrats are hoping to compete, Trump’s approval on cost of living isn’t great either: 38% in Alaska, 39% in Iowa, 39% in Ohio, and 40% in Texas.
“Every state we track has seen a drop of at least four points, and none of it bounced back during the brief ceasefire,” the group says. “There is no reason to expect it improves now that fighting has resumed.”