The Iranian strike on U.S. bases in Jordan during Volodymyr Zelensky’s and Benjamin Netanyahu’s visits to Washington caught American decision-makers off guard. The timing alone guaranteed that the attack would be interpreted as a dramatic escalation. The prevailing explanations followed a familiar pattern: Tehran was overplaying its hand, hardliners were sabotaging diplomacy, Iran was probing Donald Trump’s resolve, or the strike was retaliation for recent U.S.-Saudi operations against Iraqi militias.
Each of these interpretations may capture part of the picture. None, however, likely explains the broader strategic logic driving Tehran’s calculations.