Trump's Ugliest Legacy: Are We On Course For More Violence and Terror?
The former president is cynically warning of "a breaking point" should he be sentenced to prison next month.
Editor’s Note: Zeteo contributor John Harwood, formerly of CNN and CNBC, is one of the most respected political journalists here in Washington D.C. He has interviewed every president from George H.W. Bush to Joe Biden and is now the author of Zeteo's The Stakes column, which is released every Wednesday. I wanted John to join the growing Zeteo team because, while I may not agree with him on every issue, he understands the singular threat posed by Donald Trump to our democracy – and his latest #mustread column, below, is on the dangerous threats of violence that the former president is making **right now**. Have a read. – Mehdi
Could Donald Trump, former president and now convicted felon, burn an even darker label onto his identity? That of… triggerman?
Long enamored of intimidation as a weapon, Trump has answered mounting legal pressure with repeated provocations that law enforcement officials say could again trigger violence by deranged supporters. Embracing the possibility himself, he warned in a Fox News interview that “there’s a breaking point” at which “the public” would act.
“There’s no question the threat environment is being elevated,” Juliette Kayyem, a former Department of Homeland Security official who now teaches at Harvard, tells me. “He is constantly flirting with violence.”
More than three years after the deadly Jan. 6 insurrection, the magnitude of the threat cannot be measured. It also remains unclear just how determined and capable Trump is of inciting anything like a repeat of his ugliest legacy. Legal vulnerability for both the former president and would-be thugs among his allies has scrambled their calculations in cross-cutting ways that generate desperation and caution at the same time.
The backdrop for Trump’s behavior is the racist and anti-government extremism that FBI Director Christopher Wray calls America’s top domestic terrorism threat. It grows more perilous by the year with the country’s inexorable drift toward a majority-minority population, which increases the amount of dry kindling awaiting a spark among disaffected right-wing whites.
In a poll last year by the Public Religion Research Institute, one-third of Republicans (compared to 13% of Democrats) said “patriots may have to resort to violence in order to save the country.” Trump has stood apart from other GOP politicians for his reckless willingness to exploit the danger.
“Stand back and stand by,” he publicly directed the white supremacist group Proud Boys during his 2020 re-election race.
“If you don’t fight like hell, you’re not going to have a country anymore,” Trump told supporters at his Jan. 6 rally three years ago.
Members of the crowd subsequently stormed the Capitol, with Proud Boys playing a prominent role. During Trump’s impeachment and trial for inciting the mob, some members of Congress later disclosed that fear of physical assault weighed on their voting decisions.
In recent weeks, Trump has launched vitriolic attacks on specific accusers, prosecutors, judges, and jurors. Online supporters, calling for violence, have set out to “dox” the 12 who found Trump guilty in the hush-money case by publishing their addresses.
Trump fabricated the lie that Biden’s administration had prepared to assassinate him on a search of Mar-a-Lago for classified documents he had illegally retained. That signal to pro-Trump extremists so alarmed special counsel Jack Smith that he asked the judge in the classified documents case to silence it with a gag order.
During the hush-money trial New York Judge Juan Merchan issued such an order with little effect. At moments when he restrained himself, Trump brought sycophantic politicians to New York to amplify his attacks – as they’ve done since the verdict with absurd accusations of a Communist-style “show trial.”
Extremists have paid attention to Trump’s legal travails. Wired magazine reported earlier this year that people involved in far-right militia activity have been using some 200 Facebook groups for recruiting and organization.
But relatively large groups like the Proud Boys, Oath Keepers, and Three Percenters face greater challenges than they did before Jan. 6. The FBI has dramatically scaled up its resources to constrain them. Director Wray has told Congress that, as of November 2023, the FBI had 2,700 active domestic terrorism investigations underway—more than double the number three years earlier.
Those groups have also been hit hard by the federal government’s aggressive prosecution of Jan. 6 crimes. Not only have leaders been sidelined, but the jail sentences for hundreds of insurrectionists have appeared to deter others from risking involvement.
Trump no longer holds the levers of federal power that once gave his supporters a sense of protection. Few protested outside the courthouse at the hush-money trial.
In addition, the former president remains at the mercy of Judge Merchan in his hope of avoiding time behind bars. Kayyem found it significant that Trump has not called on supporters to rally in New York for his July 11 sentencing, the way he did with his “will be wild!” summons to Washington for Jan. 6. He’s also at the mercy of non-extremist swing voters who will decide the November election.
But Frank Figliuzzi, a former assistant director for counterintelligence at the FBI, warns against complacency. Extremists may shy away from comparatively well-protected sites like the New York City courthouse, the summer political conventions, or Washington D.C. But “lone wolf” attackers, like the Trump supporter who fired a nail gun into the FBI’s Cincinnati headquarters before agents killed him with return fire, or another who fractured the skull of Nancy Pelosi’s husband with a hammer, can seek softer targets.
“It’s very hard to get out in front of violent acts,” Figliuzzi, author of the new book Long Haul about truckers-turned-serial killers, tells me. Of particular concern, in light of Trump’s lies about “rigged” elections, are the tens of thousands of volunteer-run sites where voters will cast their ballots this fall.
The 2022 midterm elections passed without the polling place violence many feared. The stakes are higher now.
If you’re interested in reading more from John Harwood, subscribe to ‘The Stakes,’ where he writes weekly about Trump, Biden, and everything at stake for America’s democracy ahead of the 2024 elections. If you're already a Zeteo subscriber, click your profile icon in the top right corner of the Substack page, go to “manage subscription,” and scroll down to select, ‘The Stakes with John Harwood.’
I would like to see Snipers in prominent positions, for the public to see, at the Trump sentencing hearing. The faux fascists and supporters must be shown that No one is above the law. They must be shown there are CONSEQUENCES to their actions. Had there been snipers at the Capital, Jan 6th would not have progressed to what it became.
Are people really convinced he's going to jail? Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see that and not only with Trump. But I fear that he's too white, too rich and too powerful to spend even a day in a cell...