Harris May Regret Choosing Walz if the Election Comes Down to Pennsylvania
Gov. Josh Shapiro would have been the safest option.
By picking Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running-mate, Vice President Kamala Harris made a solid, safe choice. But he wasn’t the safest one.
Walz boasts many political virtues that will serve the Democratic ticket well. For starters, his All-American personal biography seems designed by an artificial intelligence bot to attract voters across the spectrum.
He grew up on a farm in the Midwest. At age 17 he joined the Army National Guard, where he rose to the rank of command sergeant major by the time he retired in 2005. He got a teaching degree at a state college, instructed high school students in geography, and became a football coach, winning two state championships.
After entering politics in his 40s, Walz beat a Republican incumbent in a rural Minnesota Congressional district and won re-election five times. He did that in part by accommodating conservative sensibilities enough to win the approval of the National Rifle Association at the time.
After becoming Minnesota’s governor, Walz built a strong progressive record. Backed by a Democratic-controlled Legislature since 2022, he signed legislation safeguarding abortion rights, preserving healthcare options for transgender youth, and providing free lunches to all children in public schools.
As he showed in his remarkably effective debut rally with Harris on Tuesday, Walz wows Democratic audiences with a happy-warrior demeanor that’s folksy, funny, and feisty all at once. In just a few recent television appearances, Walz popularized the attack on former President Donald Trump and his running-mate J.D. Vance as “weird.”
Add all that to his personal compatibility with Harris, and Walz met the running mate’s core qualification: “Do no harm.”
Unless, that is, Harris and Trump end up in a photo-finish – one decided by what forecasters call the “tipping point” state of 2024.
That state is Pennsylvania. Any plausible Democratic victory map includes its 19 electoral votes.
The Home-State Effect
The finalist Harris passed up for Walz, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, has not only won three statewide races but boasts an approval rating exceeding 60%. He communicates more crisply and effectively than any contemporary Democrat not named Pete Buttigieg.
True, nearly all voters cast their ballots for the top of the ticket, not the understudy. The 2004 Democratic nominee John Kerry lost North Carolina with that state’s Sen. John Edwards as his running mate by nearly as much as Al Gore four years earlier running with Joe Lieberman of Connecticut.
But a small home-state effect from a vice-presidential nominee doesn’t mean no effect. Even if Shapiro added only one-half of one percentage point to Harris’ vote share in Pennsylvania – well, that would have been enough to tip Pennsylvania to Hillary Clinton rather than Trump in 2016.
This fall’s campaign features seven swing states, not just one. Harris’ appeal to young and non-white voters may give Democrats a path to victory outside the Midwest through Sunbelt targets Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina. But polling still suggests that’s a harder path.
In theory, the Minnesotan may be able to help Harris win Midwestern neighbors Wisconsin and Michigan while Shapiro does the same as an energetic surrogate in Pennsylvania. But that’s just theory.
Shapiro could have brought other benefits aside from a potential boost in Pennsylvania. At 51 years old, he would reinforce her call for youthful, future-oriented leadership in contrast to the 78-year-old former president. The white-haired Walz, 60, is just a few months Harris’ senior but looks older.
The fact that Shapiro has angered teachers’ unions, among other liberal interests, with his support for some school voucher proposals also gave Harris an opportunity to gesture toward the political center. She passed it up, as she did on multiple issues in her unsuccessful bid for the 2020 Democratic nominee.
Shapiro carried risks of his own. His sharp condemnation of campus protests against Israel's war in Gaza strikes pro-Palestinian advocates as insensitive or worse. They warned he could dampen Democratic turnout among younger voters and Muslims, who play an influential role in Michigan.
Harris found Walz’s vulnerabilities, especially on Minnesota’s response to civil unrest after the murder of George Floyd, less hazardous. With the Democratic convention less than two weeks away, he represented the surer option for preserving party unity.
The question is whether, in bypassing the Pennsylvania-first option, Harris has gotten carried away by what strategist David Axelrod calls “irrational exuberance” in the 17 days since President Joe Biden stepped aside for her. A gusher of Democratic enthusiasm, campaign dollars, and rising poll numbers has made her, at least for now, the new favorite of election models and betting markets.
But she’s a narrow favorite in an era of narrowly-decided elections. As Trump proved by picking Vance in the belief he’d wallop Biden, over-confidence can prove dangerous.
Nothing in Walz’s long record of electoral success indicates he’ll stumble like his inexperienced counterpart under the hot lights of national scrutiny. With the future of democracy at stake, Democrats have to hope “do no harm” is enough.
If she had picked IDF volunteer, Palestinian hater, Shapiro, she definitely would not be getting the votes of people of conscience. She may not be able to win without our votes. Ignoring the genocide he wholeheartedly supports in your analysis is missing the boat. Credit should be given to all of those who let this administration know that they cannot win without at least a slightly better position on Palestinian liberation and an end to the occupation/ethnic cleansing/genocide.
Okay, we get it. You wanted Gov. Shapiro as the VP pick. VP Harris, who is actually the person who made the decision, picked Gov. Walz. You've planted your flag in the ground so you can say "I told you so" if PA goes for Trump and, God forbid, Trump is re-elected. But, no Magic Eight Ball or ouija board can predict the future. You did a good job of describing Walz's history and positions but you seem to think that school vouchers are a centrist position. Every state that has gone heavily in that direction has been Republican dominated and discovered significant budget deficits because of vouchers, with no corresponding increases in student achievements. Most vouchers are used by people who are already sending their children to private schools. And, in a state such as PA, with a big city on either end and Alabama in the middle (someone else said this but I forget who), how will people living in the small towns take advantage of a voucher since there aren't a lot of private schools breaking ground in rural areas so there is no "choice". School vouchers are being pushed by Republicans thanks to Betsy DeVos and her allies. Shapiro is also for lowering corporate tax rates so I'm assuming he believes in trickle-down economics which we all now know, doesn't work. I think your Republican tendencies are showing.