EXCLUSIVE: Buttigieg, Booker, and AOC Lead 2028 Democratic Primary Field Without Harris in the Race

New more precise polling from Zeteo and DFP shows no candidate holds a dominant lead – a contrast with other surveys that have shown Harris ahead.

Apr 16, 2025

While the 2028 Democratic primary is several years away, Democratic candidates are already laying the groundwork for their potential campaigns. Recent Data for Progress polling has found deep discontent among the Democratic base, with Democrats wanting a younger generation of leadership who will do more to fight against Donald Trump and the MAGA agenda. The political figures who are best able to tap into that resistance energy may be able to gain significant support for a presidential run in 2028.

In collaboration with Zeteo, Data for Progress conducted a poll of likely Democratic primary voters to analyze the current state of the 2028 field. While many polls of the 2028 Democratic presidential primary survey registered or likely voters who identify as Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents, this survey specifically focused on voters who are likely to participate in Democratic primaries, better capturing a sample more closely aligned with the electorate that will actually decide the nomination in 2028.

As the most recent Democratic nominee, former Vice President Kamala Harris remains one of the most well-known Democratic figures. However, Harris is not certain to run for president in 2028 – she is currently considering a run for California governor, where recent polls have shown her to be the clear frontrunner.

In a hypothetical Democratic primary for president, including the 2024 nominee, Harris leads with just 18% of the vote, followed by former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (14%), Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (12%), and Sen. Cory Booker (12%).

However, when Harris is taken out of the equation – and respondents who chose Harris have their vote redistributed to their second choice – Buttigieg leads the pack with a plurality of 17%, followed closely by Booker and Ocasio-Cortez with 14% each, and Governor Gavin Newsom with 10%. None of the other potential candidates tested break into double-digits.

It’s important to note that presidential primary polling this far out is generally a contest of name recognition. However, to further gauge Democratic primary voters’ perceptions of the potential candidates, the survey asked whether they would consider voting for each of the potential candidates.

A majority of likely primary voters consider 11 out of the 19 candidates tested to be one of their top choices or someone they are open to supporting in the 2028 primary. Notably, Booker rises to the very top, with 79% of primary voters viewing him favorably as a potential nominee, and only 11% saying they are unlikely to support him or would not support him under any circumstances. This is likely due to Booker’s recent increased visibility and attention after his marathon speech in opposition to Trump’s agenda broke the record for the longest continuous Senate floor speech in the chamber’s history. Besides Booker, rounding out the top five candidates that primary voters are currently considering are Buttigieg, former vice presidential nominee and current Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, Ocasio-Cortez, and Harris. Ocasio-Cortez may attribute some of her high standing to her appearances on Sen. Bernie Sanders’ “Fighting Oligarchy” tour, which has drawn large crowds in cities across the country.

Of all the potential candidates, businessman and television personality Mark Cuban has the highest percentage of primary voters who say they are unlikely to or definitely would not support him in 2028. Additionally, the only two candidates who have net-negative ratings among primary voters are sports television personality Stephen A. Smith and United Automobile Workers President Shawn Fain.

Former President Barack Obama is the most popular politician among Democratic primary voters, followed by Harris, Sanders, Walz, and Booker – all of whom have a net favorability rating of more than +70.

The Democratic politician with the lowest favorability rating is Sen. John Fetterman (+3 net favorability), with 39% of primary voters expressing a favorable opinion of the senator and 36% expressing an unfavorable opinion. Sports commentator Stephen A. Smith has the lowest net favorability of all figures tested.

Lastly, the survey included a conjoint experiment in which respondents were shown five pairs of hypothetical candidates with randomized attributes and asked to choose between them each time. This approach helps identify which characteristics voters prioritize, independent of factors like name recognition. (See example below.)

In the experiment, a significant share of likely Democratic primary voters preferred candidates who were middle-aged (47 or 55 years old) and emphasized “fighting corporate power and standing up for working people.” The most consistently favored profile was a 47-year-old Black woman with experience governing a state and a focus on economic populism.

Notably, Democratic voters don’t yet seem inclined to choose an “outsider” candidate. In the conjoint experiment, Democratic voters were least likely to prefer a nominee who “comes from outside of government and politics.” And even non-politicians – like Jon Stewart – who have strong net favorability, test poorly against other Democratic figures.

Together, the poll indicates a Democratic Party that has no clear frontrunner for the 2028 nomination. Even with Harris included, no candidate holds a dominant lead – a contrast with other surveys that have shown her far ahead. And when Harris is excluded, the field opens up further, with Buttigieg, Booker, and Ocasio-Cortez emerging as three of the top choices. These results suggest that media-savvy Democrats who seize this moment to call out Trump and the MAGA agenda could put themselves in a strong position to become the next leader of the Democratic Party.

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