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The Best and Worst Case Scenarios for Trump’s Trade War
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The Stakes with John Harwood

The Best and Worst Case Scenarios for Trump’s Trade War

Trump offered investors a modicum of hope with a 90-day pause in tariffs on most countries. But no one can say what he'll do next.

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John Harwood
Apr 09, 2025
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The Best and Worst Case Scenarios for Trump’s Trade War
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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and President Donald Trump at the White House on March 7, 2025, in Washington, DC. Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

As his massive new tariffs drew return fire from China, rattling stock and bond markets alike, Donald Trump tried to calm Americans this way: "BE COOL!"

That unconvincing social media post on Wednesday morning illustrated anew how the escalating trade war he initiated has only driven the president more deeply into self-delusion. His Cabinet has followed him there, forming a solid phalanx of Baghdad Bobs.

Asked Sunday about his message to Americans nearing retirement with their savings account eroded, Trump’s Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent gave a typically oafish response.

“Americans who have put away for years in their savings accounts, I think they don’t look at the day-to-day fluctuations of what’s happening,” he told NBC’s Kristen Welke. That’s completely wrong, as any investment adviser can tell you; ordinary Americans nearing retirement watch large market drops very closely.

In fact, the destruction of trillions in wealth from Trump’s senseless trade war is shaking Bessent’s and the president’s rich peers, too. The investment world – natural Republican allies who want lower taxes and less regulation above all else – has begun to squeal.

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