No, China Isn’t Winning the Iran War. The U.S. Is Just Losing

D.C. fixates on China because it’s easier than addressing the real causes of American decline. Ex-defense intel analyst Harrison Mann explains 5 key things to understand about the U.S., Iran, & China.

President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping visit the Temple of Heaven in Beijing on May 14, 2026. Photo by Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images

Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu’s war on Iran has killed thousands, violated U.S. and international law, and sparked deadly worldwide energy and food shortages, but the D.C. commentariat has been unable to resist innumerable takes that the real problem with the war is that it’s a “win for China.”

It’s true that Xi Jinping has not confirmed Trump’s claim that Beijing offered to help with a deal during their summit last week, Chinese companies continue to equip the Iranian military, and the Trump administration has just claimed the Iran war forced them to conserve munitions promised to Taiwan.

But while Xi might stand to benefit from Trump’s insistence on undermining U.S. economic, diplomatic, and military power, he does not see the Iran war as a “win.” Washington’s fixation on viewing the degradation of American institutions from the perspective of the Chinese president is a cop-out that misunderstands Beijing and obscures – and empowers – the actual threats to our democracy.

Here are five things you need to know:

1. No, a war between every Chinese trading partner in the Middle East is not good for China.