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Iran Protests: Trump Threatens Military Action But It Won't Get Him the Result He Wants

Analyst Trita Parsi lays out three different ways the US and Israel could attack Iran, the potentially disastrous consequences, and how the Iranian people are not the priority for DC or Tel Aviv.

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Trita Parsi
Jan 02, 2026
∙ Paid
Trump welcomes Netanyahu to Mar-a-Lago on Dec. 29, 2025, in Palm Beach, Florida. Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Just hours ago, President Donald Trump sent an extraordinary and unprecedented social media post – threatening Iran with war if Tehran harms its own protesters.

Last weekend, protests erupted in several Iranian cities over Iran’s collapsing currency. In some cases, clampdown by the authorities turned deadly, with at least seven people reportedly killed in the unrest. As the protests have spread to more cities, concerns have heightened that Iranian authorities could respond with the kind of intense, violent crackdown seen in the past.

Trump’s post, delivered without a clear strategic rationale, was striking not for its clarity but for its contradiction: the same leader who repeatedly promised to end regime-change operations abroad now appears to be flirting with the very kind of interventionist brinkmanship he once condemned.

Whether Trump is bluffing or not remains to be seen. But if he is seriously contemplating military action, three plausible scenarios present themselves.

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A guest post by
Trita Parsi
Trita Parsi is the Executive VP of the Quincy Institute and an award-winning author. Washingtonian Magazine has named him one of the 25 most influential voices on foreign policy. Noam Chomsky calls him "one of the most distinguished scholars on Iran"
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