EXCLUSIVE POLL: A Majority of Democratic Voters Believe Israel Is Committing Genocide

Mehdi’s Memo on the results of our new poll on Gaza and Iran

Despite President Joe Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s impassioned denials, and the self-censorship of the New York Times, almost four in 10 likely voters and more than half of all Democrats believe Israel is committing genocide against the Palestinians in Gaza, according to a new poll of 1,265 U.S. likely voters from Zeteo and Data For Progress, conducted from April 26 to 29.

Seven months after the Oct. 7 attacks, and as the Israeli military prepares for a full-scale invasion of Rafah, our poll shows that American voters are largely divided on whether Israel's actions in Gaza so far constitute a genocide, with 39% saying it is and 38% saying it isn't. Among Democrats, however, there is a clear majority, 56%, who opt for the G-word. 

There is also a generational and ethnic split among voters: a majority of under-45s (55%), as well as pluralities of Black (44%) and Latino (48%) voters, think it’s a genocide.

Despite the Israeli government’s refusal to agree to a hostage deal earlier this week, our survey reveals that 70% of voters support a permanent ceasefire and de-escalation of violence in Gaza - the highest percentage since Data for Progress began tracking this in October. Among Democrats, that number reaches a whopping 83%, while for independents it is 65%. Even among Republicans, a clear majority, 56%, say they back a permanent ceasefire. 

There is little support among likely voters for Israel’s military strategy – or for increasing American aid to Israel. A majority of voters, 53%, believe Israel’s military actions in Gaza have been ineffective in freeing the Israeli hostages.

More than one in three voters (37%) support decreasing U.S. funding for military aid and weapons for Israel, compared to less than one in five (18%) who back increasing that funding. A plurality of voters also oppose the recent decision by Congress to provide $4 billion to replenish Israel’s missile defense systems, 46% to 40%. 

A majority, 54%, even support suspending all U.S. arms sales to Israel for as long as Israel blocks U.S. humanitarian aid going into Gaza. 

As for the anti-war protests roiling campuses across the United States, voters are split over whether they approve (40%) or disapprove (42%) of college students protesting their schools' investments in corporations that profit from Israel's military operations. 

But there is a clear plurality of American voters (46% to 40%) who disapprove of colleges limiting the right and ability of students to protest against Israel’s war in Gaza. And it’s a majority of Democrats (55%) and under-45s (59%) who take a pro-free speech stance on this contentious issue. 

There is no appetite for a new conflict in the Middle East. Despite hawkish Republican senators like Tom Cotton calling for the Biden administration to “fully support Israel” in any conflict with Iran, our poll reveals that a majority of voters want to see little or no U.S. military involvement if fighting between Israel and Iran escalates, and that view holds across party political lines.

Will this new survey of public opinion, showing support for a ceasefire and opposition to more military aid for Israel, as well as to U.S. military involvement on behalf of Israel against Iran, have any impact on the administration’s foreign policy? Is President Biden willing to go into November’s election blindly backing a war in Gaza that the majority of voters from his own party call a genocide? And how will the White House react to the stunning news from our poll that when voters are asked who they trust more to handle U.S. involvement in the Israel-Palestine issue, they (narrowly) pick Donald Trump over Joe Biden, 47% to 45%?

One of the president’s most outspoken Democratic allies in the Senate, John Fetterman, has urged Biden not to shift course on Israel, and not to “capitulate” to what he calls the “fringe” of the Democratic Party.

But if Biden backs a permanent ceasefire, he will be listening to the overwhelming majority of not just Democratic voters but all voters. As the Zeteo/Data For Progress poll makes crystal clear, the only “fringe” figures right now are pro-Israel, anti-ceasefire members of Congress like Fetterman. 

What We Have Been Up To At Zeteo

‘Mehdi Unfiltered’ last week featured a one-on-one interview in our Washington, D.C., studio with congresswoman Summer Lee, a member of the Squad, in which she described the police crackdown on college protesters as “dystopian” and “shameful” and slammed AIPAC’s attacks on her, as well as a debate between two elected Muslim Democrats, Keith Ellison and Abdullah Hammoud, on whether Muslim-Americans should vote for Joe Biden in November. 

We also released episode two of my new segment with Zeteo contributor Owen Jones, ‘Two Outspoken.’ We discussed the spread of anti-war college protests from the U.S. to the UK, as well as Sadiq Khan’s re-election as mayor of London and the Conservative Party’s continuing implosion.

Zeteo released op-ed columns from two new contributors, both of them Pulitzer Prize winners.

Spencer Ackerman did a deep dive into Israel’s quadcopters, while Viet Thanh Nguyen made the argument for why the student protesters are on the right side of history. 

Plus, John Harwood wrote his weekly newsletter on Republicans, healthcare, and the Deep South. 

Where I Have Been Interviewed

The Zeteo media tour continues!

I argued with Piers Morgan about the meaning of ‘intifada’ and asked him why he won’t say the word ‘genocide’ when it comes to Gaza: 

I spoke to Majority Report’s Sam Seder and Emma Vigeland about “propaganda, protest, and politics”:

I told Rolling Stone magazine that the mainstream media has covered both the Gaza genocide and the campus protests “horrifically badly,” and also explained the rationale behind Zeteo. 

What I Am Quoting

“First, I must confess that over the past few years I have been gravely disappointed with the white moderate. I have almost reached the regrettable conclusion that the Negro's great stumbling block in his stride toward freedom is not the White Citizen's Council-er or the Ku Klux Klanner, but the white moderate, who is more devoted to ‘order’ than to justice; who prefers a negative peace which is the absence of tension to a positive peace which is the presence of justice; who constantly says: ‘I agree with you in the goal you seek, but I cannot agree with your methods of direct action.’” - Martin Luther King Jr, ‘Letter from a Birmingham Jail,’ April 16, 1963

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