The Democratic Senate Map Doesn't Look So Bad Anymore

Trump’s fall is endangering his party even in red states.

James Talarico (left). Sherrod Brown (right). Photos by Getty Images.

Depressed enough by the Republican election sweep, Democrats in November 2024 sank even deeper when they considered the shape of Donald Trump’s victory.

In 24 of the 31 states he carried, Trump routed Kamala Harris by double-digit margins. Since polarization increasingly aligns election outcomes up and down the ballot, that sent an ominous signal about Democrats’ future competitiveness for other offices too. Their path toward recapturing the Senate ran most steeply uphill of all.

Six months before Election Day 2026, that path doesn’t look so steep anymore.

Trump’s steadily eroding public standing – 35% approval in the latest CNN polling average – has Democrats confident of regaining a majority in the House. Each of the last five presidents have suffered that blow in midterm contests.

But regaining the Senate – the chokepoint for a president’s Cabinet and judicial appointments – matters more. Democrats need to carry at least two states that candidate Trump won by at least 11 percentage points.

And the collision of Trump’s second presidency with reality has dramatically boosted the odds that they can. The old 2026 shorthand: ‘bad map.’ The new, hopeful one, from Democratic pollster Geoff Garin: “The map is really enlarged.”

Take a stroll across it.